Hackers Have Leaked Sberbank Of Russia's Internal Analytics
They are predicting a freeze in the war and a new mobilization.
The Black Mirror hacker group has published a document it claims is an internal analytical memo from Russia’s Sberbank outlining possible scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine. The memo considers a freeze in the conflict with a partial lifting of sanctions to be the most likely outcome; according to the authors’ assessment, Russia would need a new wave of mobilization involving 300,000–500,000 people to achieve a decisive military advantage, writes “Agency”.
According to the hackers, the memo titled “Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia–Ukraine Conflict” is dated April 2026 and was obtained from the correspondence of Sberbank CEO German Gref. At the time of publication, the bank itself had not commented on either the document or its authenticity.
The memo examines eight scenarios for the course of the war in Ukraine.
The authors consider the most likely scenario—with a 32% probability over the next 6–12 months—to be a freeze of the conflict along the current front line, a partial lifting of sanctions against Russia, and the continued closure of Ukraine’s path to NATO. The probability of the so-called “Korean scenario”—stabilization of the front line without a formal peace agreement—is estimated at 22%.
The probability of the war continuing at its current intensity for another two to three years is estimated at 15%, while the probability of a peace agreement on Russia’s terms is 12%. The latter scenario involves Russia retaining the captured Ukrainian territories, a partial lifting of sanctions, and guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO.
The authors of the memo estimated the chances of “a decisive military advantage for Russia” at 7%. To achieve this, the document states, Russia would need a second wave of mobilization involving at least 300,000–500,000 people.
“Without this, the manpower required for a large-scale offensive is unattainable,” the memo states.
According to the authors’ assessment, recruiting about 80,000 new contract soldiers per quarter—while suffering monthly losses of 20,000–25,000—would largely allow for replenishing losses but would not be sufficient to build up new forces for a major offensive. At the same time, the authors identify mobilization itself as the main social risk for the Russian authorities.
The probability of a compromise peace with mutual concessions is estimated at 5%, while that of a peace on Ukraine’s and Europe’s terms is estimated at 2%. The latter scenario involves Russia returning to its 2014 or 1991 borders, Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia paying reparations. The authors believe that such a scenario would require an extraordinary event, the likelihood of which is currently low.
Another 5% is attributed to “black swans.” Among these, the document lists nuclear escalation, a major accident at a nuclear facility, a direct clash between Russia and NATO, a change of government in Moscow or Kyiv, and a technological breakthrough in the field of autonomous combat drones.
As noted by “The Agency,” there is no independent confirmation of the document’s authenticity.