Yaraslau Ramanchuk: «Crisis can be avoided with such gas price»
- 6.12.2007, 17:53
“Such gas price doesn’t allow to make a favourable forecast. It will be possible to survive in 2008 due to sale of most of enterprises that are in demand today, and growth of foreign crediting. But these measures are emergency, they can delay economic crisis, but won’t help to avoid it,” economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk said to Charter’97, commenting the information of Interfax about gas price of USD 165 per 1.000 cubic meters in 2008 suggested by Gazprom in the course yesterday’s negotiations in Moscow.
But, according to the expert, “we will face a serious crisis of banking system, slump in real wage and correspondingly, standard of living, and forced liberalisation as a result. But reforms can’t be carried out at once, and of course they can’t give immediate result.”
“Actually, USD 165 per 1.000 cubic meters is the price that arises from the contract signed last year, that is 67 per cent of the average European price, which comprises now USD 300-350 per 1.000 cubic meters. So there is no sensation here,” Y. Ramanchuk explains.
In the economist’s opinion, “the authorities again hoped for some “special” relations with Russia instead of initiating economic reforms and preparing for market energy prices. That is the reason that the budget for the next year was fixed on the basis of lower gas price – USD 120 per 1.000 cubic meters,“ the expert says.
It is notable that this information has come to light only ahead of Putin’s visit to Belarus. Yaraslau Ramanchuk inclines to see a “political game, the result of which will be that both parties declare their win, even if they agree on 140 dollars. But Lukashenka will have an opportunity to blame Russia of all “troubles” again.”
At the same time the expert didn’t exclude it would be a peculiar tactics of the Kremlin before the discussion of the so called constitutional act, and a means of pressure to solve some trade and economic issues, including lifting restrictions on Russian products trade on the territory of Belarus.