Leanid Zaika: “This government can in two days”
- 14.10.2008, 12:48
Despite of triumphant reports about the state of Belarusian economy, independent analysts think that our country is just coming into pre-critical state.
The Ministry of Statistics and Analysis of Belarus reports that over January-August this year Belarusian export has grown by 55.4% (the forecast for the year was 16-17%); while import by 54.8% (forecast 12.5-13.5%). Moreover, volume of investments to fixed assets in Belarus in January-September has grown by 23.2% up to Br24 billion.
In an interview to “Belorusskiy partisan” Leanid Zaika, a well-known Belarusian economist stated that one should have no illusions about these attractive figures:
“Firstly, this data is desperately outdated. In the conditions of exacerbating global economic crisis economic statistic changes almost every day. For instance, as of October 1, we bought from Russia different goods and services 8 billion dollars more than sold to them.
Secondly, world pricing environment is changing downward greatly, and it directly affects our currency-gaining enterprises. Oil prices have deflated from $160 per barrel to $80. And we are selling oil products mostly to European countries for a sum of 6 billion dollars. It goes without saying that in this situation our losses will be huge. They would be also caused by the fact that the level of demand for any goods and services is down. The number of those who would like to buy Belarusian potash fertilizers and metals which provide 1.5 billion and1 billion of currency gain respectively, would fall. In Ukraine half of metallurgic works have closed already. The number of Ukrainian metal’s buyers has fallen catastrophically. Almost the same expects our Zhlobin metallurgic works.
Thirdly, and the most dangerous thing. Russian business circles have already informed that they would axe work-force at most enterprises of Russia. I expect that Belarusian gastarbeiters will be the first to be axed despite of the “brotherly love”. There up to 700 of them in the neignbouring country. These people would arrive here thwarted, angry, and they would wish to ‘settle accounts’ with this global financial crisis. In which way? By withdrawing their bank deposits. “Unconscientious” local Belarusians can follow them quickly. If there would be a panic, Heaven forbid, the government could be ruined in 2 days. It is certainly far from that, but such a possibility couldn’t be ruled out either.
Summing up I can say that in the foreseeable future our economy can drop by 5-15%.