Economy Ministry denied realistic GDP forecast in favour of agitprop one
- 21.11.2008, 14:35
Belarus forecasts economy growth in 2009 at a level of 10-12%, rejecting a far more realistic forecast announced earlier.
As deputy economy minister Andrei Tur informed, the reports published earlier that the estimated growth of economy at 1-2% was a mistake of a state interpreter, Reuters informs.
“It is natural we are expecting GDP growth at a level of 10-12%, while growth of the global economy is estimated to be equal 1-2%,” Tur said on the phone. “At the moment we have no grounds for decrease our forecast indices”.
As has been informed, answering questions of journalists summing up the results of London investment forum via interpreter, Tur said that after the country would pass the recession the Belarusian authorities are expecting to receive a growth of the GDP equal to 1-2% by the end of the 2009.
However, as the AFN writes, such a gross mistake is doubtful, and Tur must be a leader among Belarusian officials in most realistic estimation of the Belarusian economy’s future. Such a sudden change in his words should be left on his conscience.
Even farmers of neighbouring countries do not believe the GDP growth at a level of 10-12% in Belarus. Belarus has already faced serious problems caused by the crisis. Export revenues are dwindling, enterprises which work for export and for the inner market curtail production and even shut down, problems with bank liquidity are increasing, non-payments crisis is likely, not speaking about problems at currency market.
At the same time, the crisis has just tapped on the door of Belarusians. But very soon this politeness will be over. After the New year the unwanted guest would fling the door wide open and enter the country not asking for permission.
Belarus will feel the crisis at its worst in the end of January-in February. At about this time Russia is to feel the power of the crisis too. 70% of Belarus’ external volume of trade is connected with Russia. And that is why today’s problems will seem baby talk as compared to the situation in the economy of “the country for people” in spring.
It should be noted that behind the scenes many high-ranking officials confirm this scenario indirectly, often refusing to speak even about rough estimates of what is expecting the country in a few months. It is not clear in this connection why during unofficial talks there are many grounds for reconsidering the GDP, while there are no such grounds for official statements. Officials, for whom the word recession has become a part of daily lexicon, are trying to lull somebody.
It looks as if such behaviour has been caused not by difficulties of understanding the state ideology of Belarus in the style of Soviet-type propaganda, and not even the fear of officials to lose post. It is most likely that everything is much easier; it is just a usual human fear of panic, it is a desire to live on a day to day basis.