April statistics – failure of “Belarusian economic miracle”?
- 28.05.2008, 10:18
The convening of the session of the Council of Ministers, where results of work for four months of 2008 were discussed, wasn’t so necessary at first sight. What did make the government analyse the statistics as a mater of urgency?
The ministers were called to discuss not the results of the year, a half-year, or a quarter of the year, as it is common in the long practice of the Council of Ministers. Moreover, more than a week ago prime minister Syarhei Sidorski counted to the head of state for economic results over the last four months, reported on three standard unfulfilled parameters (agricultural production, import and energy intensity) from 19.
According to “Zavtra Tvoey Strany”, the reason is an alarming comparative analyse of the results of four moths and those of three months. April statistics appears to be the most losing in the course of the year, when the world was able to watch the “Belarusian economic miracle.” In comparison with March, 11 socio-economic indexes showed decline. Among them are manufacturing and agricultural production, paid services for the population and so on.
Decline in the real cash incomes of the population is the most remarkable – salaries practically didn’t grow in April, and uncurbed inflation exceeded the performance. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Analyse, the average accrued salary in April in Belarus amounted to 836,980 rubles, or 391 dollars.
This figure is far fewer than the one (435 dollars), said in prime minister Syarhei Sidorski’s report to Alyaksandr Lukashenka. According to the Ministry of Statistics, the growth of consumer prices in April was 1.2 per cent as against 0.8 per cent in March. Consumer prices have increased by 5.3 per cent since the beginning of the year, with the annual forecast of 6-8 per cent.
It is worthy to note that the Ministry of Statistics gives official figures. The real average salary in Belarus is even less, and the price growth is higher.
In general decline in economic indexes, though rather small per month (most parameters showed decline only of some tenths of a per cent), can’t but worry with its global character.
It’s difficult to explain the April tendency with force majeure circumstances. So, one should seek reasons of the failure in the economic system, asking if this situation is a forerunner of economic recession.