Russia driving Lukashenka into corner
- Alyaksandr Klaskouski, “Nasha Niva”
- 9.06.2008, 8:58
During the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, the Russian President has tete-a-tete meetings with most of his CIS colleagues, except for the Belarusian one.
Evgenia Voiko from the Center for Current Politics (this analytical agency is considered to be close to the Kremlin) thinks as Medvedev wants look like a liberal in the West, he “taking into consideration sharpening of Belarusian-European relations, would run a risk to disown his liberal image in case of negotiations with Lukashenka” in the eyes of the participants of the international economic forum, which has begun in St. Petersburg at the same time.
This version may seem pleasant for political opponents of Lukashenka, but appears to be too good. The new Russian President had a tete-a-tete with, for example, Karimov, who has a rather specific reputation in the West, moreover, after the Andijan slaughter. A number of other post-Soviet countries are not very democratic. So the approach to contacts was more likely pragmatic.
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan possess energy recourses, so the Kremlin’s new host managed to find some time for both Berdymukhamedov and Aliev. From the other side, he needed to string up Georgia and Ukraine. So Saakashvili got a message that NATO wouldn’t save him, and Yushchenko – that his intention to press the Russian fleet out of Sevastopol would cause increase in gas prices up to 400 dollars (it’s more than prices for Baltic countries!) from the next year.
So, there were contacts with perspective, rich with oil and gas partners, and with those, who are at swords points with Moscow now. However, Lukashenka today is not an enemy, but not a friend, neither, as Vysotsky sang. It’s possible to come to terms with rich countries, possessing energy resources, and scare pro-Western enemies, while relations between Moscow and Minsk are in pause mode. The Russian elite seems to expect the poor of energy resources republic to share with what it has, in particular, companies and banks’ assets, and allow Russian ruble.
Russian politologist Andrei Ryabov says without equivoques: a stumbling block is “issues on the rights of Belarusian elites, heading the privatisation. Of course, they wouldn’t like to be left without nothing in their own country. They understand well manners of the Russian business, they understand we will take everything.”
So Moscow is apparently not so much afraid to spoil its image as to estimate how to grab in easiest way. It expects for the client to draw to a head. It thinks the time is on its side. Belarus may face the hardest time when it has played its transit trumps. The pipelines are being already built by-passing the blue-eyed republic with balky leadership.