Russia's gamble could backfire

• «Financial Times»
• 27.08.2008, 10:29

First Russia despatched overwhelming military force to smash the tiny army of its little neighbour, Georgia, on the pretext of defending a minority group from alleged "genocide".

Now Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president, has recognised the "independence" of the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in defiance of United Nations resolutions and the urgent pleading of Washington and the European Union. The Kremlin is determined to demonstrate that it can behave as it will in its own backyard and call the bluff of Georgia's western allies.

In the short term, Russia seems to have all the cards. The Nato allies are not going to send troops to defend Georgia. They are far too bogged down in Afghanistan, not to mention Iraq, to commit soldiers on the ground. They need Russia's support in curbing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. Above all they want Russia's oil and gas, and access to the growing Russian market. No one wants to go back to the cold war confrontation.

In the long term, however, this looks a dangerous Russian gamble. Mr Medvedev has turned traditional Russian opposition towards self-determination and the integrity of national borders on its head. Russia opposed the independence of Kosovo for that reason. Now it is cynically copying the Kosovo model to score diplomatic points, but the circumstances are very different.

The Abkhaz and Ossetian populations have not been threatened with anything remotely approaching "ethnic cleansing" or "genocide" by the Georgians. If anything, the danger is in the other direction, with ethnic Georgians fleeing both regions to escape the Russians and the Russian-armed secessionists.

Abkhazia might just survive as an independent entity, thanks to tourism and some sense of identity. South Ossetia, with a mixed population of only 70,000 and little economic activity apart from smuggling, has no future alone. It will inevitably be absorbed by Russia. Neither statelet will be stable, if thousands of former inhabitants end up as refugees in Georgia. And who else will recognise them? Yet their example may well encourage the restive republics of the north Caucasus, such as Ingushetia and Dagestan, as well as Chechnya, to determine their own destiny.

So why did Mr Medvedev do it? Wounded Russian pride and a misguided desire to rewrite the international book of rules seem the most likely explanations. The former is a bad mentor. As for rewriting the international rules, that will not be done unilaterally, with Russia mistrusted and disliked.