Gas cost will rise no matter what concession Lukashenka will make to the Kremlin
- 3.09.2008, 8:34
The Belarusian government has rubberstamped the key parameters of social and economic development of the country for the year 2009. Experts find these forecasts not so optimistic.
Economists of the government have hidden behind attractive figures serious challenges the Belarusian economy would face. According to these index numbers, GDP growth in 2009 is expected to be made equal to 110-112%; investments should grow by 23-25%, agricultural production by 8.5-9.5% and so on.
A well-known economist Leanid Zaika in an interview to “Belorusskiy Partizan” stated that these measures have been taken not from an analysis of economy trends for the next year, but from internal country indicators for the 7 months of this year.
“The government simply decided that current economic indicators are completely appropriate for the year 2009, he said. “And generally speaking they could be right. If Belarus would recognize independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the cost for gas would remain almost this year’s for it, but probably a little more. And it means that Russia’s donations to Belarusian economy will continue. But what do 5 or 6 bn of lost dollars mean for Russia, when they have easily parted with 50 bn dollars just in the US mortgage credit crunch?
Besides, after the Georgian-Russian war and harsh reaction of the whole international community, Russian capitals would return from abroad inevitably. So why cannot a few dozens of billion dollars settle in Belarus?
But then one could forget about Western investments to Belarusian economy forever. And in the great scheme of things there haven’t been Western investments in Belarus, and I fear, they won’t come here. It does not mean much that Turks have build an expensive five-star hotel in the centre of Minsk. Hotel business has an average profitability of 170% worldwide. But nobody from the West hurries to invest in Belarusian milk and other plants with a profitability of a few per cent. And it is unlikely anybody would do that in view of recent developments”.
However, forecasts of Russian money capital’s influx to Belarus could prove wrong. If the forecasts about money outflow from Russian economy after the conflict between Europe and Russia would start, and a little crisis will take place in spring, will prove true, Belarusian enterprises would be affected as well, as they are strictly focused at Russian market.
Belarusian importers are panic-stricken for a few days already, after the government have imposed a limit for a resale mark-up. Importers of food, perfumes, drugs are preparing a collective address to the Belarusian president with a request to reverse this decision. Otherwise deliveries of many goods would be frozen, and losses of traders will be enormous.
Besides, the cost of Russian gas will grow inevitably, no matter what political concessions will be made by Lukashenka to the Kremlin. And all this is a threat of great strain for the economy of the country.