Sidorski and Putin's meeting: bargaining continues
- 6.10.2009, 10:11
Today talks between Prime Ministers of Russia and Belarus are to take place in Moscow. Russian mass media note that in connection with the recent events these talks are to be complicated.
The Belarusian authorities do not conceal that the main topic of the meeting is giving the last part of the loan, $500 mln out of the previously approved $2 billion loan. However before the arrival of Sidorski, Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin stated that Russia won’t credit Belarusian economy.
As written by “Kommersant” newspaper, today’s talks of Syarhei Sidorski and Vladimir Putin are unlikely to be east for the Belarusian side. Alyaksandr Lukashenka has created a negative background before this metering. Last week he brought accusations against Russian Prime Minister, stating in particular that it was Putin who thwarts integration process between the two states. After the speech of the Belarusian ruler observers in Minsk even predicted that Syarhei Sidorski’s visit to Russia would be cancelled. But these rumours were proved wrong by spokespersons of the Belarusian and Russian Prime Ministers Alyaksandr Tsimashenka and Dmitry Peskov.
Off the record, Russian officials of the government and the Foreign Ministry responsible for relations with Belarus say they see in Lukashenka’s actions an attempt to drive a wedge between the Prime Minister and President of Russia.
And it is not the first attempt. The Foreign Ministry of Russia reminded that during the visit to Lithuania in September, Lukashenka alluded to a conflict between Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, speaking about “complicated domestic political configurations” in Russia and “undercurrents” in the Kremlin, which “emerge” at times. “If seems to him for some reason that there are sparks of conflict between Putin and Medvedev. And he is trying to use that. He is doing that not just publicly, but during bilateral contacts as well. He is simply complaining about Putin in Medvedev’s presence,” said a participant of a few rounds of talks of the two presidents.
Meanwhile, the Russian reaction to Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s outburst followed. Yesterday morning the head of Russian Finance Minister and convinced opponent of crediting Belarusian economy Alexei Kudrin, made a statement. He said that Moscow is not going to give Minsk the last tranche of $2 billion loan, $500 million (the Belarusian authorities have already received $1.5 billion), and won’t give Ukraine $5 billion loan. “So far, we are not considering the continuation of the loan disbursement to Belarus. We won't provide it on a bilateral basis,” Kudrin said. It should be noted that Russian Finance Minister told about plans of Russia to give money to Sofia and Beograd. As said by him, now a possibility to give a loan to Bulgaria for Belene nuclear power plant construction is considered. Besides, Serbia will receive money for covering its budget deficit and using the remaining sum for investment credits.
Previously Andrei Kudrin spoke out against giving loans to Belarus, hinting that the Belarusian authorities should first substantiate money receiving and persuade the Russian side that they would be able to pay back. Kudrin has probably found substantiation of Belarus’ solvency questionable. At least, Russian Finance Ministry has explained its disinclination to give loan to Belarus by doubts of Minsk’s ability to pay back debts.
“Belarus’ foreign trade deficit in January-July this year was more than $4 billion. And volume of gold and currency reserves is kept at the level of $3 billion only thanks to foreign lending resources,” Russian Finance Ministry experts who know the situation in Belarus explained. “However Minsk expects to receive about $2 billion from the IMF by the end of the year, and at the same time they ask money from us. Such a run for foreign loans puts in question an ability to pay back Russian loans in the future”.
Despite of the statement by Kudrin, Minsk still hopes that Sidorski will bring from Moscow $500 million as a result of the talks with Vladimir Putin. “Belarus will continue talks with Russia about receiving $500 mln loan,” Belarusian Finance Minister Andrei Kharkavets said yesterday to Belarusian mass media. “The agreements on loans by Russia haven’t been cancelled. We have made an address, and we haven’t changed out approaches yet”.
Anyway, after Lukashenka has expressed everything he thinks about Putin, Syarhei Sidorski will have to make serious efforts not to go back home empty-handed. Moreover, the Kremlin has prepared a long list of promises not fulfilled by the Belarusian authorities, both political like recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and economic.
Most important of the promises concern fuel and energy sphere. As said by a source of “Kommersant” in the Presidential administration of Russia, back in April the sides agreed to cooperate in this sphere actively. And in June the Belarusian side received an actions plan prepared by Vice Premiere of Russia Igor Sechin. It includes large investment projects in gas, oil, gas and chemical industries and participation of Russian companies in privatization of oil refineries Naftan, Grodno Azot and others. “This plan was put on the shelf in Minsk. There is no progress,” the source in the presidential administration complained.