Stanislau Bahdankevich: “Today’s massive deficit is without equal in history of Belarus”
- 6.04.2009, 9:15
A meeting of Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Dmitry Medvedev can take place in the nearest future.
Observers in Minsk are trying to guess what is the reason of Russian-Belarusian top level contacts have become more frequent.
The press-service of Lukashenka informed that on Friday Lukashenka and Medvedev had a phone talk “on the initiative of the Russian side”. It was stated in the report that the main aim of the Russian president was to tell Lukashenka “about results of London G-20 summit. Meanwhile, the presidents “discussed urgent issues of bilateral Belarusian-Russian relations, and agreed upon personal bilateral contacts in the near future,” the press-service informs.
Local observers note that the number of Russian-Belarusian top level meetings has grown unprecedentedly. As we have informed, in the end of March Lukashenka and Medvedev met twice, in Zavidovo on March 19 and in Krasnaya Polyana near Sochi on March 21. Then reports about face to face meetings haven’t been received by mass media then. According to official reports it followed that the presidents discussed the “implementation of the decisions of the Supreme State Council”, problems of trade and economic cooperation and joint measures on fighting the financial and economic crisis, cooperation in fuel and energy, and financial and credit spheres, as well as issues of military-technical cooperation.
Many observers and experts then thought that Lukashenka and Medvedev’s close collaboration could cost a loss of “family silver” for Belarus, that is, enterprises of petrochemical complex. Russians have always been interested in them. Mass media actively discussed the purchase of “Beltransgaz” by “Gazprom” ahead of time. As we have informed, at present the Russian company’s share is 37.5%. According to agreements it is to reach 50% by 2010.
The “heated argument” in mass media concerning possible 100 billion rubles Russian loan to Belarus, gives experts ground to suppose that the money issue could become a subject for the presidents’ discussion as well.
As we have informed, the Finance Ministry of Russia stated that Belarus was denied a loan. At the same time, first experts and then officials in Minsk stated that talks had been just suspended. At the same time the head of the chief directorate of the National bank Syarhei Dubkou told to journalists that Belarus would ask 2 billion dollar loan from Russian Sberbank. Besides, as said by him, Belarus plans to address the same request to other Russian banks, with which they have agreements about cooperation. Belarusian mass media quoted the head of Russia’s Central Bank Sergei Ignatyev who said that there is a strange variant when the Central Bank of Russia gives money to Belarus, and which is to be used “in line with the agreement on single currency introduction”. Such a statement gave the observers ground to suppose that the ally countries could return to discussions on this issue once again.
According to the former head of the National bank of Belarus Stanislau Bahdankevich, the ground of all urgent issues in relations of Belarus and Russia is trade balance deficit. “Over the last year it was 13 billion dollars, and such a massive deficit is without equal in history of Belarus. It should be considered how to reduce it,” he said in an interview to “Nezavisimaya gazeta”. “I think some decisions could be adopted to stimulate Belarusian export to Russia,” the expert supposed. He also agrees that the issue of transition to national currencies accounts would be considered. “Belarus wants to switch to settlement in national currencies, to receive an interest-free loan from Russia due to a swap,” S. Bahdankecich believes.
The Belarusian expert of the financial market expressed concern over rapidly growing foreign debts of Belarus, and next year debt servicing could cost about 6 billion dollars. Against the background of deeply negative foreign trade balance (in January-February it grew 2.5 times as compared to the last year, or 1 billion dollars) and decrease of export by 50%, the price of the debts’ growth could be independence of Belarus, and principally financial independence.