Experts: Belarusian ruble to drop by 60%
- 19.06.2009, 12:21
Such a conclusion has been made by financial analysts in a review of macroeconomic situation in Belarus, which has been released to public at the VI CIS and Baltic States Bond Congress. According to them, the Belarusian currency can repeat the destiny of the Russian ruble and Ukrainian hryvnya.
It is noted that the National bank of Belarus devaluated the ruble in January-February by more than 30%, however, “tiny volume of reserves does not allow saying that ruble’s decline will stop at that”. Analysts state that international reserves of the National Bank cover less than two months of the future import instead of three-four months, the BelaPAN informs.
“Such a state of affairs is not to advantage to the Belarusian ruble, which undergoes serious devaluation pressure since the early 2009. We believe that under such conditions ruble exchange rate is to fall to at least 3,000 Br per US dollar,” the review notes.
Moreover, the analysts continue, considering expectations of current account deficit at 10-11% of the GDP, the Belarusian ruble can repeat the way of hryvnya and Russian ruble and fall by 60% to the US dollar, from 2,200 to 3,500 Br per dollar. Expectations of the International Monetary Fund concerning the current account deficit at 8.1% of the GDP are very optimistic, according to the authors of the report.
It is also noted that absence of considerable receipts of middle and long-term credits makes Belarus depending on Russia’s loans. Furthermore, growing population’s demand for currency along with current account deficit has caused, beside the ruble’s devaluation, decline of gold and currency reserves of the National Bank by $3 billion. And that happens while beside a loan from Russia, Belarus has received $800 mln from the IMF, the report emphasizes.
Experts note that in April procurement of foreign government loans by Belarus didn’t take place, and reserves decreased. For this reason plans of the government and January forecast of the IMF country report in stand-by program on gold and currency reserves growth is considered unrealistic by analysts. For their implementing external financing should reach $5.5-7 billion in the rest months of the year depending on the situation in the foreign trade.
It fits in the plans of Belarusian government to attract another Russian loan of 100 billion Russian rubles ($3.3 billion), receive a $2 billion loan from the Joint-stock commercial Savings Bank of the Russian Federation, and new tranches of the IMF loan in stand-by program. “However, these resources’ attracting is not guaranteed,” emphasize the authors of the review of the macroeconomic situation in Belarus.