Pendulum striking forehead
- 4.06.2009, 9:20
“The swing of the pendulum from East to West will strike someone’s forehead,” famous Belarusian politologist Raman Yakauleuski thinks. However, not all persons of the game think about this.
Political observer Raman Yakauleuski supposes recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Minsk is around the corner as Minsk has always supported the republics. But the expert thinks Alyaksandr Lukashenka can also bargain with the United States; he allegedly negotiates on granting $1 billion by the US in exchange for recognition of Kosovo. In his view, the direction where the pendulum will swing to may lead to troubles: the pendulum will strike everyone’s forehead because “not all persons in this game think about this”, ru.delfi.lt writes.
– Recognition or non-recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is a condition of Russia and the EU, respectively, to Belarus. Loans to Belarus and economic support of Russia depend on whether Belarus fulfils the condition of Russia. Meanwhile, Belarus allegedly conducts negotiations on getting a loan from the US in exchange for recognition of Kosovo. Does Lukashenka look for ways out of the deadlock in connection with “misunderstanding” with Russia?
– Minsk always recognized the separative regimes of these parts of Georgia and supported trade and economic relations with them, even before Lukashenka came to power. It wasn’t a secret for Tbilisi that opened the Georgian Embassy in Minsk center in 2008, if I’m not mistaken. It should be reminded that Belarus, unlike Russia, preserves not only diplomatic ties with Georgia, but also a visa-free regime. This difference in foreign policies of the two states of the Belarusian-Russian union that are supposed to be coordinated (but not common in view of different weight classes) can be regarded as a sign of independence of Belarus.
At the same time, it preserves the strong economic dependence on Russia that more often makes political conditions when rendering economic aid. The peculiarity of Lukashenka’s policy towards Georgia is that Belarus officially recognizes territorial integrity of the country but supports separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for many years. This is called a multi-vector policy. I think de jure recognition of these Russia’s protected states by Belarus is around the corner.
What concern the rumours about secret talks between Belarus and the US on recognition of Kosovo in exchange for a $1-billion American loan, we must notice the next fact. This billion for Lukashenka was first mentioned by Andrei Suzdaltsev, a Russian politologist and an expert whose opinion is important in the Council of Federation, Security Council, and the Russian MFA.
At least, his reports on Belarus are on demand there. I don’t exclude that Andrei Suzdaltsev just expressed an opinion popular in the above mentioned governmental institutions. Moreover, it looks rather interesting in the context of regular visits of Belarusian foreign minister Syarhei Sidorski to Geneva that remain a secret only for most Belarusians.
Lukashenka and his minister are possibly looking of a way out of a deadlock of misunderstanding with Russia on the shore of Lake Geneva.
– Alyaksandr Lukashenka said that was a “big game”...
– I think he might have meant the secret game with Washington and the West.
– In what direction is the pendulum going to swing now?
– If you mean the swing of the pendulum from East to West, I fear the pendulum can swing so that it strikes someone’s forehead in this hazardous game. I have an impression not all persons in the game understand this.
– Lithuanian MP Zingeris offers that Vilnius should become a center for cooperation between the EU and its eastern neighbours. What’s your opinion about this?
– It’s rather difficult to understand motivations for this offer, when all parliamentary elections in Belarus remain unrecognized by the EU. Moreover, Mr Zingeris is banned from entering Belarus. His presence at opening Council of Europe’s information center in Minsk on June 8 could be a test of intention of the Belarusian authorities.
Lithuanian is known as one of the originators of the Eastern Partnership programme. The project was initiated by presidents of Lithuania and Poland. Joining of Sweden stepped up the initiative. So, the offer of Mr Zingeris can just be a reminder of the role of Lithuania in the EU new policy. It will be possible to discuss its parliamentary measuring only after recognized democratic elections.