IMF augurs great problems to Belarus
- 21.07.2009, 9:04
The Belarusian government still declines to comment and give estimations, and relevant agencies keep silent.
The International Monetary Fund predicts aggravation of problems in the Belarusian economy, if Minsk won’t be granted a loan from Russia. In this connection Belarusian experts believe that the Russian aid is to become a subject for heated bargaining between Moscow and Minsk, and trade wars between them are to last until the presidential elections in Belarus in 2011. The confirmation of that are new limiting measures of Russia concerning Belarusian products, Kommersant informs.
The head of the IMF representation in Minsk Nataliya Kolyadina has stated that Belarus is to face difficulties inevitably in case Russia would refuse to grant $500 mln tranche of the loan. “The IMF believes that in this case the Belarusian economy won’t avoid aggravation,” she said. In this connection the IMF representative offered Minsk to get ready for privatisation of state-owned property objects more actively. She partially agreed to arguments of the Belarusian leadership that the time is not right for privatisation at the moment, as costs for these objects have dropped, but she added: “It’s a good time to prepare considerable assets for privatization”.
The Belarusian authorities still decline to comment and give estimation of the IMF. Yesterday the head of the Belarusian Finance Ministry press-service Alena Slizheuskaya stated that her agency cannot confirm or refute the information of the IMF representation. The Economy Ministry declined comment as well.
The Belarusian authorities hoped to receive another tranche of the Russian loan, $500 mln, back in May. However then the talks ended in a scandal after Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin questioned Belarus’ solvency as its gold and foreign currency reserves are insufficient. After that the Belarusian Finance Ministry addressed the EU for financial aid. But last week Belarusian Finance Minister Andrei Kharkavets announced that Minsk expects to return to the topic of issuing the Russian loan. And Alexei Kudrin gave it to understand that the issue could receive a positive decision: the loan would be granted out of the anti-crisis fund of the EurAsEC.
However in the end of the last week Alyaksandr Lukashenka refused to come to Moscow to the traditional race for the prize of the Russian president, thus missing an opportunity to discuss the issue of the loan. “Medvedev and Putin haven’t come to Minsk for June 3, Independence Day of Belarus celebration, though Lukashenka invited them, so he paid back,” the reasons of denial of the Belarusian leader are explained by independent Belarusian experts. They believe that trade wars between Moscow and Minsk are to last until the presidential election in Belarus in the beginning of 2011. “Then it would be clear: is Lukashenka a friend again, or whether he would be rubbed out,” they predict. $500 mln promised by Kudrin would become a bargaining chip for Russian and Belarusian authorities.
The confirmation of that could be found in the new measures of Russian against Belarus. The Russian Federal Service for the Supervision of Public Health and Social Development put “Belmedprepaarty” on the black list. Now an obligatory quality test of some drugs of the company is to take place. Besides, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision announced that laboratory supervision over products of 40 milk and meat processing plants of Belarus will be tightened up. According to analysts’ estimations, it can reduce the volume of delivery of Belarusian milk and meat products to the Russian market.