Zalesski: “Regime fights with adverse balance with the help of mantras and magic words”
- 13.01.2010, 10:51
Independent economists do not believe in forecasts of the government that adverse balance of foreign trade would be reduced, and say that it is to grow.
Last year adverse balance of foreign trade reached 5 billion dollars. Could the promises of officials to decrease merchandise deficit this year? Radio Svaboda was told about that by an economist Mikhail Zalesski.
- The website of the National bank of Belarus informs that the adverse balance of foreign trade in January-November was 4 billion 814 million dollars. In the end of the year it was about 5 billion. Is it possible to reach the same economical indicators which are written in the forecast for the next year authorized by Lukashenka’s decree, if the adverse balance of foreign trade would remain so high?
- It is not the first year when we are hearing these mantras and magic words: to reduce, to reduce, the adverse balance will be reduced… Let us see what causes that. It is caused by the situation when the cost of an item of our export reduces, and the cost of an item of import remains the same or grows. The goods we produce should be needed by people. If demand for our goods would grow, it is to become more expensive, and this adverse balance would disappear.
- Official reports note that the dynamics of growth of the adverse balance of foreign trade is declining. It means that it is not growing so quickly as in the first half of the year. Could it be called a result of struggle with import, carried out by the Belarusian leadership?
- Regulating imports in the form it is done in our country does not influence this dynamics much. There are more valuable things. We should manufacture good products, needed by people, and this adverse balance will disappear gradually.
- Belarusian government in its target prediction – 2009 planned to decrease the adverse balance by 1.47-1.5 billion dollars. In 2010 officials promise to decrease adverse balance of foreign trade again. What is your prediction?
- I think there would be 7 billion. It is interesting: 1,500 persons are sitting and making this state prediction. And as a result, they are mistaken fivefold. It means, they either cannot make predictions, or fear somebody. And we all know whom they may fear. As in order to make a real prediction, we should use the growth of this adverse balance over the last 15 years. And if we have 15 points, the 16th should not be far from them. And we will see that 7 billions are expected.