Zlotnikau: Dollar can hit Br 5000 in Belarus

• 19.10.2010, 15:47

Our economy won’t be able to guarantee the planned rate of exchange of Br 3170 independently, believes economist Leanid Zlotnikau.

In the draft budget of 2011 the Belarusian government planned that the rate of exchange of the US dollar would be Br 3170 in the beginning of the year, and Br 3206 by the end of the year. Euro and the Russian ruble won’t go up considerably. The forecast of the government is Br4059 for Euro and 107.4 for a Russian ruble.

The European Radio for Belarus asks whether the authorities would be able to support the exchange rates and what rate of exchange is expected in the end of this year.

Economist Leanid Zlotnikau thinks it will be possible to stick to the planned rate only if the government manages to get the necessary amount of currency:

“From different sources – loans, selling state property, direct foreign investments… In any case, if they manage to establish a currency influx here, it will be possible to keep the exchange rate,” the economist believes.

However, as the expert says, such an influx of currency will hardly be possible. And the dollar may cost 5 thousand rubles without it next autumn:

“However, I do not think it will be possible to provide such an influx neither by the end of this year, nor at the beginning of the next year. So, there is nothing that could help us maintain the rate planned by the National Bank. I have an impression, the exchange rate may reach 3200 by the end of this year. It is difficult to predict what will happen later. However, our economy is unable to maintain such an exchange rate on its own. It may be 4 or 5 thousands for one dollar and it may happen by next autumn if we do not manage to change the situation with the help of huge foreign loans,” Zlotnikau underlined.