Joerg Forbrig: Sanctions to become wider and more effective in future (Video)
- 21.05.2012, 11:37
So far the European Union had no instruments for struggle with dictators.
The experience of existence of bordering countries between powerful political and economic models in the 20-ieth century has proved to be tragic. Yugoslavia, Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Karabakh, Cyprus and many others underwent military division or obliteration. Is swallowing up an option, or would Minsk be able to withstand between the two titans of the world politics, the European Union and Russia – is a question with no answer so far. Joerg Forbrig, an expert of the German Marshall Fund on Belarus, in the interview on air of ARUTV has told about the very special role of Belarus in the issue of general security in Europe.
http://www.aru.tv/sites/all/libraries/uppod.swf
***
- I will not say a lot about the sanctions as I find this question a petty a technical one, as the sanctions are just an instrument of influence. I have been supporting the sanctions long before and asked the EU to impose them. I am happy that the EU has finally taken this path.
I would like to briefly present three points, and there is nothing new in them. It seems to me that all the ideas have already been expressed by the experts’ community, and we should not look for the new ones, but choose form the existing.
The first point on the geopolitics is related to what had been said by Arkady Moshes: the position of Belarus between Russia and Europe cannot lead to stability in the long run. People in Poland know that very well, as between the two World wars the idea of the countries between the USSR and Germany hadn’t worked either. Today the EU does not aspire to incorporate Belarus or Ukraine, but Russia does not let them go of its sphere of influence. Belarusians should make their choice. And how the West could support this choice is also a question to be discussed.
The second point: Europe is weaker than Russia in the rivalry for border countries, as:
1) The European Union is weaker institutionally and structurally, as the EU consists of 27 members, each with its own interests
2) The European Union does not have Eastern policy. For 30 years the EU is trying to formulate such a policy (it is called Eastern Partnership today), but it had not been successful so far. The same situation is in the South: southern neighours of the EU do not see a distinctive policy towards themselves. It seems to me that such a policy is going to be developed, among other things as an answer to the actions of Russia in this region. Today the situation is more advantageous than ten years ago, as the countries which are interested in this region and dealing with it have joined the EU. Poland should be given special prominence. It has become a stronger actor in the EU than a few years ago. It should be noted that as a result of the crisis the EU can also change in such a way that joining of new members would pass much smoothly.
3) The EU had no political instruments against dictators so far. The entire policy was based upon a partner’s having interest to cooperation. After December 2010 the EU is trying to develop such instruments, and it should be admitted that there is certain progress. Sanctions may seem ineffective or us, but the process has been set in motion, and the train is moving this way. I believe that in the future sanctions are to become wider and more effective.
The third point: we should not overestimate power of Russia in the struggle for the countries bordering on the EU.
1) Much is said about possible disappearance of Belarus in the orbit of Russia, but the situation in Russia has changed (Putin does not have such power). The risk is, the more problems there would be inside Russia, the more efforts would be made to compensate it in the foreign policy.
2) The regime in Minsk very clearly sees limitations, and how far can they go along the path of integration, as the regime itself is based upon a certain political and economic independence from Russia. I do not see grounds for Belarus’ becoming a part of Russia automatically.
And the last thing: Belarusian analysts are strongly criticizing the European Union, but it should be done constructively. We do not see many of you at the debates in the West, and it is a substantial defect. I would like you to join this debate. I think that now is the best time for that: the doors are open – politicians and diplomats are asking for that.