‘Evacuation Issue of Lukashenka Came to the Surface in Russia’
- 16.12.2020, 9:39
The first thesis is the usurper must go.
Political analyst Andrey Suzdaltsev writes in his blog that the Kremlin does not have any promising political and economic projects associated with Lukashenka:
- Lukashenka, encouraging rumours about Russia's readiness to introduce troops into Belarus, is terrified of this. If a "limited contingent" enter the country, he will immediately end up playing the role of Afghanistan's Amin. That is, why would Moscow need a ruler, who failed and spent everything, caused a popular uprising? Any occupation troops dream of returning home, but how can they leave when Lukashenka cannot even control his palace. The first thing any (I stress 'any') foreign army is the liquidation of the one who asked for help to strangle and kill his people with the hands of others.
There will be no Russian troops in Belarus. At best, Russian special forces may offer Lukashenka the evacuation. However, it will be a "humanitarian operation".
The evacuation issue of the Belarusian ruling elite has a reason to come to the surface. Russia lacks manoeuvres on the Belarusian political field, where Moscow has no partners (Lukashenka is not a partner, either). One may say it is a serious problem, not fatal... At that, it is clear that as long as the incumbent Belarusian ruler is in power, the Belarusian political field will remain closed to Russia.
By the winter of 2020, other political and economic factors that curb or undermine the prospects for any given scenario for a way out of the Belarusian political crisis also revealed. In particular, there are no illusions about Lukashenka's retention of power. The incumbent Belarusian president has managed to make such a mess that the resources of the whole of Russia will not be enough to ensure his power. So the first thesis is Lukashenka must resign. No one doubts it in Moscow, except for the talk-shows on federal channels...
Based on the current situation, Moscow does not have any promising political and economic projects related to Lukashenka. There are no plans to bring the Belarusian-Russian integration out of the stagnation phase. At that, Moscow realizes nothing depends on Lukashenka in Belarus. Law enforcers, who will never be legitimate, are in charge.
The outcome of the negotiations on gas and oil supplies for 2021 will serve as an indicator of these sentiments in Moscow; however, it is already clear that subsidies and preferences for Minsk will only shrink, as well as the Belarusian economy.