Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenka Has No One

• 10.09.2020, 13:18

Even the government disapproves of his actions.

Leader of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sannikov stated this in an interview with Yevhen Kuzmenko and the website censor.net.

-Ukrainians are wondering why Belarus, which for so many years humbly (at least, this is how it looks from the outside), endured Lukashenka and his regime, has now risen? What is more here: fatigue from one permanent face? Is the resource base depleted? Has the younger generation declared itself? Or the dictator began to slide into insanity?

- Let me correct your wording. Belarusians has not tolerated him for a single year. At all! In 1995, when Lukashenka began to change state symbols, members of the Supreme Council (which at that time could still be called parliament) held a hunger strike. The BPF deputies were on hunger strike demanding to cancel the illegal referendum on changing the national symbols of Belarus. They were beaten at night, thrown out of the courtroom. This is generally an unprecedented case when the security forces were brought into the parliament building, and the deputies were beaten, a referendum was held and the symbols were changed!

-Well, true, we have already forgotten about it ...

- The countries of the democratic world did not react then. As if "not noticed". And that's how it started. The more dictators get away with their lawlessness and rudeness, the tougher they become, the more bestial is their face. So much the worse their attitude becomes not only to laws, but also to people.

Then we had a referendum in 1996, when a whole delegation arrived from Moscow. People who are no longer alive today or simply not on the political scene. Speakers were Gennady Seleznev, Yegor Stroyev and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. And then there was a lot of talk that, allegedly, a landing party came to save Lukashenka. Nothing of the sort - the landing party came to take this fuse-cord out of the situation at least a little. And they agreed on normal things: that the referendum will be consultative in nature and will not affect the political structure of the country. Lukashenka deceived them, too.

Then we had "ploshchas". What you call a Maidan is called Ploshcha in Belarus. At the same time, for some reason they forget that not a year has passed so that serious protests do not break out in Belarus. Moreover, for the reasons that Ukraine came to years later. Sorry, of course, but we decided to talk sincerely. My friend Dzmitry Bandarenka was beaten with a truncheon on the back, and today he has health problems due to the fact that he went out to block the avenue in 1998, protesting against the agreement on the creation of a union state, which was signed by Boris Yeltsin.

And we had Freedom Marches in 1999 and 2000, which gathered dozens of thousands. That is, we did not have a year without a Ploscha, but there was already a dictatorship. By the way - supported by all our neighbors. Today I can talk about this without ambiguity. It is clear that the Kremlin would always support a vassal-dictator. But when Ukraine's business interests prevailed; when business interests prevailed in Poland and the Baltic countries in relations with the dictator, this meant serious support for the dictatorial regime in Belarus.

To answer your question about why today there is such an unprecedented mass and geographic protest, one of the demonstrators' slogans will be enough - "We've had enough!" We'll talk more about the reasons below.

Has Lukashenka been rigging elections and referendums since 1995? Because he has had no serious support since 1995. And he knows it. Well, a year after his election, there was still some support. But he already understood perfectly well that he would not be able to win any elections - even to local councils - in a democratic way! So he started swinging truncheons.

- I remember that well. It was then that they began to call him "the last dictator of Europe" in the West. Putin has not yet come to power ...

- And here, we see an interesting tendency. Lukashenka used force - and then watched, to what extent the West will have the patience to make statements, impose sanctions and be tough on the dictator's regime? It didn't take long, and everything started all over again.

- I just wanted to compare your current situation with our situation under Yanukovych. How did it happen that there is practically no organized opposition left in Belarus? Anticipating your possible answer: they also imprisoned oppositionists under Yanukovych - Tymoshenko, Lutsenko. But at the same time, and in addition to those who were jailed, there was someone to coordinate and finance the Maidan-2014. Why is it not so in Belarus?

- I will say again that this is not an entirely correct question (smiles). Why? Every time I give an interview, I always talk about my old dream. My dream is Ukraine as a regional power. So that it behaves without being ashamed of either its territorial size, or the magnitude of its human potential, or its path to gaining full-fledged independence, despite all the problems.

I mean, so that Ukraine today vigorously defends democratic values in the region.

And it's not that the opposition could have organized something under Yanukovych. Yanukovych was not a dictator. Yes, he really wanted to repeat Lukashenka's steps to create an authoritarian system - but he was not a dictator. Yanukovych was a corrupt official who wanted to become an authoritarian ruler.

And here it is important to note one essential point. You see, Belarus has a unique situation. Because all dictatorships are still based on national identity. Here, the situation is completely different. Lukashenka made his dictatorship by denying Belarusian identity, Belarusian history and culture. Even the language. How could this be done? Only on the ruins of the Soviet empire, only by creating a parody of it, deliberately instilling nostalgia for the mythology of the USSR. No other way…

- At the same time, depriving Belarus of identity, Lukashenka found support in the country for many years. How did he manage to do this? Not with just a whip ...

-He wanted to, but failed. After all, what happened on August 9? Despite all the calls of the real leaders of the electoral race not to show national flags, on August 9 and in the following days Belarus simply flashed with our national flags! So it didn't work.

Now I will answer the question why there is no such serious opposition in Belarus that would be formalized. Yes, because the formalization of the opposition in our conditions means the surrender of all data to the KGB. Party registration means the surrender of the data of all party members to the KGB. Not just a place of work, not just a name-patronymic-surname, but a phone number, home address, and so on!

- This is something that is very important to know in order to have an idea of the situation. People do not understand the full scope of state control in Belarus.

- Absolutely. Therefore, when they reproach us, like, why didn't they create a party? You see, the principle of efficiency worked, not formalities. All the structures in which I participated - both Charter'97, which was originally a civil initiative, and the European Belarus, a civil campaign - never set out to register. Because we knew we couldn't endanger people. If we want to fight the dictatorship, we must fight the dictatorship, and not surrender our supporters, our activists to the KGB. Because any registration requires submitting the list to the Ministry of Justice, controlled by the KGB.

- And here's another thing that many Ukrainians cannot understand. Although the majority of Ukrainians came to the full realization that Putin's Russia is an enemy after the annexation of the Crimea, there was no sympathy for the Russian Federation at Maidan-2014. There was vigilance. So why do many protesters in Belarus, including the same Tsikhanouskaya, resort to these ritual slips? They say, these are not anti-Russian protests, but anti-Lukashenka ones. Why Nobel laureate Svetlana Aleksievich obsessively suggests discussing everything with Putin. Do Belarusians understand the danger of direct annexation of their country by the Kremlin? After all, the example of Ukraine is very indicative.

- Tsikhanouskaya and Aleksievich are not a good example; with all due respect, they are not the leaders of the protests. But real leaders are in prisons. As for Belarusians, they perfectly understand the danger of their eastern neighbor. But I would slightly correct your question. We do not have any anti-Russian sentiments during the protests, although Lukashenka is trying to argue the opposite. At the beginning, we did not have any Russian factor. Now it is being actively pushed by Lukashenka and Putin, it seems, to justify the Russian invasion, and this is already extremely dangerous for us and for Europe. And yet, our protest is about the fact that we must change the government, get rid of the dictator. And what will happen next - we'll figure it out later. After all, we are Europeans much more than it is generally accepted in Russia. It is probably difficult for them to understand that since the XIV century we had Magdeburg Law, when in Russia they did not even know such words. That we actually had the first European constitution - the Statute of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

So we'll figure it out. We can and want to live according to the laws, not according to criminal concepts. Guys, we will talk to you normally - and we will be more predictable partners than Lukashenka. It is he who draws you into games. He invented a provocation with PMC Wagner, and for some reason his version was seriously discussed by the Ukrainian media. And it was he who came up with a lie about the concentration of NATO forces on the western border of Belarus (which is not even in sight, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated this quite clearly. He somehow seems more trustworthy). The Russian factor is extremely dangerous - yes, as always, because we know what it is. But to say that this factor is present as a slogan of protests, and it is necessary to oppose it - no. It is necessary to resist the Kremlin, which through the mouth of Putin announced that reservists are being prepared to be sent to Belarus to help the usurper.

Perhaps, militants from the captured regions of Eastern Ukraine are also preparing. The intervention of the Kremlin propagandists has already begun. Because of this, the Kremlin should be subject to international sanctions. Not only Lukashenka and his regime, but also the Kremlin. The international community must be extremely tough to stop the Kremlin's attempts to invade Belarus.

- As for the involvement of the "Russian factor" in the protests, we cannot but agree with you. The Kremlin itself will climb into your difficult internal situation - and then there is this operetta story with a conversation allegedly intercepted by the Belarusian KGB between the German and Polish intelligence services regarding the poisoning of Alexei Navalny ... What do you think about it?

- Another example of Lukashenka's inadequacy. He is trying so hard to persuade Putin to save his regime again that he presents the blatant fake as intelligence information. Here, by the way, there is one curious moment: either complete idiots or those who deliberately portray Lukashenka as an idiot could have worked so clumsily. I would like to hope for the latter. By the way, the Internet community has already determined that the very same Boshirov and Petrov from Salisbury were Nick and Mike from the "intercepted" conversation.

- I continue to ask questions reflecting the bewilderment of Ukrainians about the Belarusian protest. Why won't protesters take advantage of Ukrainian protest logistics? One fortified anchor point like the Maidan - with a headquarters, a resource base, the ability to make sorties, coordinate protests across the country. And the same points appear over time in other settlements...

Why is everything exactly the opposite in Belarus? The emphasis is on protest groups that suddenly gather in different parts of the city. Or planned actions with a large crowd of people - who then diverge.

- This is just the easiest question. Because we have a dictatorship. The Ukrainian version is impossible with us. And here we have always envied not only you, but also the Serbs, who could set up stages, hang modern screens, and bring good sound-amplifying equipment. This is impossible in Belarus. I took part in organizing many rather large protest actions. And I will tell you that the most difficult thing is to bring more or less tolerable equipment to the action.

- Well, in Ukraine, too, the equipment was brought to the Maidan and installed with battles, we had to beat it off from the police. And the main thing here is a large number of people.

- No, the main thing is not that. The main thing is that all centers, all groups are monitored. In Ukraine, equipment was brought to the Maidan under the conditions of at least some kind of law. And your law enforcement agencies have not yet become bandits who do not defend but beat people, as it is the case of Belarus. And when there were arrests, appeals to the judicial authorities, which were not all under Yanukovych, worked. Appeals to the deputies who were elected worked. I remember how the deputies came to the Maidan - showing courage, defending the protesters. We don't have that. Our deputies are Lukashenka's gang. All separation of powers has been completely destroyed; there is not a single person inside the Lukashenka regime to whom one can appeal for the execution of the law. This is pure fantasy ...

- Well, if the entire power apparatus is on Lukashenka's side, if there is no one to cover the conditional Maidan, who then coordinates the protests? This is also a novelty for us: everything happens very anonymously. Telegram channels, minimum names. (In our country, by the way, they look at the figure of Tsikhanouskaya with skepticism). Yes, in Ukraine they understand that several people from the Belarusian opposition are now in dungeons - and yet. Since there are no prominent figures at the head of the protest, it is easy for Lukashenka in such a situation to blame everything on a foreign conspiracy: they say, you see, the Belarusian protest has no Belarusian leaders; these are all puppets, led from abroad!

Hence the question for you: who, then, coordinates the protests?

- I think it will be studied later. Today there are not just a few people from the opposition in the dungeons, but the leaders of the protests are behind bars: Mikalai Statkevich, Pavel Seviarynets, Siarhei Tsikhanouski. Plus the real leader of the electoral campaign, Viktar Babaryka. Back to the question of how such a large-scale protest was formed and why it is alive and well coordinated. These are all the consequences of COVID-19. You see, Lukashenka succeeded in almost the impossible - he offended every Belarusian with his attitude to the pandemic. I think he also offended his guardsmen, mankurt. After all, he not only denied the existence of COVID in the country; he insolently drove people to deadly events! A military parade, subbotniks, to schools, and so on. Then he began to insult people who died from the pandemic ...

- Can you explain why he did it? An idiotic whim of a dictator? Or was there some concealed plan behind this?

- I do not really like to analyze the crazy dictator, but, in my opinion, he simply did not have money. And he realized that taking action would mean unlocking his purse somewhere. And he has 18 residences that need to be maintained. The security staff is huge, requiring large expenses, special services, special forces. This will always be a priority for him. And he realized that if he imposes any restrictive measures, the budget will be deflated very quickly. Well, and it was necessary to show that he is the boss in the house - he does what he wants. Even through the death of people.

Now UN statistics have revealed horrific figures: the death rate from COVID-19 was underestimated in Belarus by at least 10 (!) times.

And so he began to insult people, disparaging the dead. And people began to organize themselves. Parents stopped letting their children into school. They said: stay at home, we don't want to risk you. We began to raise funds for doctors and patients. Restaurants were closed, they began to prepare free meals for doctors, for the elderly.

- But this experience of yours is very close to us - since the days of the Maidan. In fact, volunteering began to unfold, which by its very nature is already disgusting and dangerous for the Lukashenka government.

- Absolutely. What you had at the Maidan in 2004, at the Maidan in 2013-14 - absolutely the same thing began to happen in Belarus. And from this arose the awareness of people: why do we need these authorities? They only shit on us!

And when he again insulted people, attributing to himself some incredible percentage (although the nickname Sasha-3% corresponds to reality), people just took to the streets. I don't think this is where a conspiracy theory should be sought. I explain this precisely by volunteering, the ability to self-organize. Because at the most difficult moment, when Lukashenka seemed to have broken the protests by force, women came out into the street. Did someone organize it? Is it someone from some headquarters, some party said? No. I think chats, telegram channels worked. Not the telegram channels that show protests today and suggest what can be done. They - yes, they are coordinators. But people think for themselves now. And this women's march stopped the violence. It gave the protesters a little respite - and the protests erupted with renewed vigor.

- Another question of interest to the Ukrainians who passed through the Maidan. Why, they ask, if the protests against the Lukashenka regime gather such crowds - why don't you go to the presidential administration and take it with an overwhelming majority?

(I must note that those who ask such a question for some reason believe that they will not shoot at those trying to attack the dictator's administration. Although there is a Heavenly Hundred in Ukraine ...).

- First, he not only showed that he was ready to shoot. He's already shooting. I am afraid that we already have more than the Heavenly Hundred corpses. This is carefully hidden, they are discovered by accident. They try to present the dead ad drug addicts, alcoholics, suicides. But this is all a lie. I think that, unfortunately, on August 9-11, a large-scale tragedy occurred in Belarus. And so, this distraught old man running with a machine gun - he can shoot.

To be honest, I cannot answer this question. I probably don’t want to answer. Because it’s hard for me even to comment on such things, being outside Belarus. I can comment on everything else. But such things are difficult to comment on. I have always answered this question based on my own experience. It says that everyone for himself determines the degree of risk and the willingness to take this risk.

- Andrei, according to many in Ukraine, it looks like the protests have begun to decline, and Lukashenka can stay in power. Do you think this is so?

- He can hold on by force. All this time he was held by force. But the current mood of the people is not going anywhere. What happened now? There are two very important things that will eventually remove him from his illegally occupied position. This is, firstly, the economy, which he stubbornly refuses to reform, and which today, even without strikes, without a protest movement due to the economic crisis associated with COVID-19, would be in a deplorable state. And the second is what he is now making thousands of people go through jail. These are thousands of fighters. The leaders of the Polish Solidarity used to say to us: when thousands go through jail, then you will overthrow the regime.

- Because we must remember that they have children, wives, parents. This is all a bubbling mass of people who will not forgive Lukashenka for the grief caused, do I understand your idea correctly?

- They will never forgive. Yes, some percentage will be intimidated. Some percentage will be broken. (This is the worst thing they do to people.) But the overwhelming majority will come out with one desire. Even if a person has been in prison for three days. We now see how the beaten people are being released. They do not say: I want to get away from this, I believe that Lukashenka can stay in power. They say: I will live only to sweep away this monster. He cannot survive against these two factors.

- How to say. Ayder Muzhdabaev, whom you know, believes that the moment for overthrowing Lukashenka has been lost, and now there are the most severe repressions ahead, and Russia will provide the broadest assistance in retaining power to the dictator. Considering that Ayder worked for Moskovsky Komsomolets for many years (and then, for his dissidence, during the seizure of Crimea, he was forced to leave Russia and move to Ukraine), it is worth listening to his forecasts. Do you agree with him completely or partially?

- I do not agree. We somehow touched upon the situation in the Crimea and Belarus. Let me now give you a quote that sunk into my soul, it was so correct and wise. Once in Lodz, I had the opportunity to chat and listen to the Chinese dissident Liao Yiwu. And he said that everything in the world is interconnected, and if it weren't for Tiananmen in 89, the Berlin Wall would probably have stood for some time. A powerful protest in the totalitarian state went in waves - and swept away the Berlin Wall, helped liberate the peoples of Eastern Europe.

So, when we talked with Ayder, I remember we talked about how we need to shout to the world about what is happening with the Crimean Tatars and Belarus, and not make pessimistic forecasts. Each of those who find themselves in a situation of savage dictatorship pressure, savage pressure from an occupier, the same dictator, should show solidarity with each other and talk about it. (In due time we talked about the same with our friend Boris Nemtsov. He is, perhaps, the only one who understood what Belarus is for Russia). Ayder's forecast has a right to exist. But pessimism ... it doesn't help us.

That is why I am annoyed by analysts of various kinds (and mostly from Belarus) - because they are doing very well. They write to themselves for 20 years the same thing: nothing will happen. This is the most comfortable position. That is, if something does happen - well, okay, I was wrong. And if nothing happens, then the "analyst" will say again: see, but I warned you! This is a cynical, arrogant, mean position.

I want to hear now what needs to be done to make it happen. Guys, let's get involved. Let Ukraine use its influence to help Belarusians today. To explain to the serious world players how important it is today to get rid of the dictatorship in Belarus. We, the Belarusian opposition, keep talking about the crimes that are being committed against the Crimean Tatars. I would like the leaders of the Crimean Tatars, very respected by me, Mustafa Dzhemilev and Refat Chubarov, to say: United States, you must help Belarus today; Brussels, you must help Belarus today. You should get fully engaged today! Not to reason and not to make lean faces: like, oh my God, how bad everything is!

This applies to everyone living under dictatorship and occupation. We must always remember our own solidarity.

- There is another collision here. Many Ukrainians, trying to assess the situation in Belarus from the point of view of the national interests of Ukraine, adhered to this point of view a month ago: it would be better if the dictator Lukashenka remains in power - at least he does not allow Russia to threaten us from the Belarusian border.

Should they now understand the situation in such a way that this mark has already been passed and Russia's control over the borders of Belarus under Lukashenka is inevitable?

- Absolutely. And this did not happen now. We shouted about this back in 2017, when the Zapad-17 maneuvers took place, and before that, in 2013, when large-scale maneuvers took place, among the targets was the territory of Ukraine. What was it done for? Just walking around the territory of Belarus near the borders of Europe and Ukraine? Well no. Very specific plans for breaking through a corridor through Suwalki in Poland, at the most vulnerable point, were worked out. And the options for the entry into the territory of Belarus of a more significant grouping of Russian troops - with an eye on Kyiv as well.

- Are you sure about that?

- Yes I am sure. I spoke with military experts in Poland. They saw it all perfectly. Your general staff also spoke about this. Therefore, be complacent and say that Lukashenka, at least, did not recognize Crimea ... But he did recognize Crimea! All votes in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly speak of the fact that he recognized the annexation of the Crimea. There, the delegation of Belarus always votes against Ukraine.

In general, it is a myth that Lukashenka is a predictable partner. For business, dirty schemes - yes, he is an accomplice. Someone gets rich on this under any government in Ukraine, under any government in Poland. But this has nothing to do with the seriousness of the problem of the dictator who threatens all of Europe. Because it is through him that Putin can do whatever he wants. Therefore, today we must say that sanctions against the Lukashenka regime should also bear in mind the sanctions against the regime in the Kremlin, which is going to help him. That is, if there are even hints of providing police, military assistance to Lukashenka in this period, then there should be sanctions against the Kremlin. That's all! And Ukraine can talk about it. Be careful though - I always understand the practical dimension of good neighborliness. This is a peculiar neighbor, but still you have a common border, you need to take care of it somehow. However, in the international arena, you can speak more sharply.

- I have already realized that you have had enough of constant skeptical assessments of the future of Belarus - but I will play a sort of Eeyore's donkey for a while. Don't you think that Russia will outstrip Poland, Lithuania, Germany in the speed of reaction to what is happening? It can be either direct annexation or powerful propaganda processing. Or a hybrid mixture of both. We went through all this in Ukraine. But Russia also has a carrot and a whip in the economic area with regard to Belarus. They can, on the one hand, show that they have your economy in a fist, and on the other hand, give money. The West simply does not have coordination and sufficient resources to resist Russia, don't you think? I mean the next stage, when after Lukashenka's departure from power it will be necessary to build a new state ...

- Yes, I find that the West has no desire to defend its values and understand that in Ukraine and Belarus there is a struggle for the values of the West, democratic values that are denied by the regimes of Russia and Belarus. They have no desire. They have no political will. Although they have enough of what is called soft power, which is only multiplied. This is money, laws, and sanctions mechanisms. For example, the Magnitsky law appeared. A very effective law, I think. But for some reason they do not want to apply this to Belarus.

Regarding your question. I don’t want Belarus to become a field of such a battle. I want the elections to be held immediately after Lukashenka is removed.

Yes, Russia can very quickly try to fill the vacuum. But, no offense will be said, Belarus is not Ukraine. In Ukraine, pro-Russian relations were purposefully cultivated through the Russian world, through Eastern Ukraine, through the presence of groups that were actively working, including those directed by the GRU. That is, not just such harmless propagandists.

- A few days ago, by the way, the Ukrainian media went around the photo - Viktor Medvedchuk and his associate Ilya Kiva are standing against the background of the Lukashenka flag of Belarus. Such a form of support.

- Scoundrels, what else can I say. But in Belarus there is no support for the Russian world. There is no support for these St. George ribbons and such rabid pro-Putin residents.

- But there is the Russian language. And for some reason I don't see Belarusian protest songs being sung. But they pulled out from the past a worthy, but not at all Belarusian song by Viktor Tsoi. That is, this vacuum of identity, which, in your words, was created by Lukashenka so carefully, is still not filled?

- I do not agree with you. When flags appeared, it became clear that there was no identity vacuum. I think every family has a white-red-white flag. Moreover, these are by no means the flags sewn overnight, everyone got their own.

- We have already talked about what this powerful protest against Lukashenka grew out of. Who still supports Lukashenka himself?

- In addition to the security officials who support him (for money, benefits, the opportunity to protect business, for the opportunity to create organized criminal groups to enrich themselves), Lukashenka is supported by lumpen. This is the leader of the lumpen and riot police. That's all, no one else. I think today, if we measure Lukashenka’s rating, we will get even less than 3%. By the way, pay attention to this. Have you seen anyone from the government of Belarus who would say something in defense of Lukashenka or harshly condemn the protesters, except for the thug Karayeu, of course (Interior Minister)?

-I don’t remember; on the other hand, I did not follow closely, I could have missed it.

-It simply does not exist, the government. He has no one now. Nobody at all except bandits in uniform.

- Well, they drove the rallies in his support. In 2014 we called it Anti-Maidan.

- This is a lumpen, moreover, a small number.

- Overthrowing Lukashenka - will this also be your personal story of returning to Belarus?

- This is a dream. Salman Rushdie put it this way: what is exile? This is the dream of a triumphant return. So, I don't want it to be triumphant. I just dream of returning.