Belarusians May Have a Historical Chance
- Petr Kuznetsov
- 6.10.2021, 10:33
The people will be able to independently determine their future with minimal external influence.
The situation with Komsomolskaya Pravda continued - the holding decided to close the Belarusian branch altogether.
How interesting it is to see some things in the context of characteristic features of /digital/ era.
If only Venediktov had not blurted out that Komsomolskaya Pravda is Putin's favorite newspaper, it would be a quite standard, if not "habitual" case for the current situation in Belarus. Well, another media outlet was shut down - it's not the first and not the last. But information, contexts, and shades play a huge role now. And so the headlines said: "Putin's Favorite Newspaper." Which, you will agree, is far from the same thing as if it were just "another media outlet."
First of all, this is not the same thing because it is causing Putin another image damage. It's impossible to count how many of them were from Minsk over the decades. Everyone is waiting: when will he run out of patience? And he does not run out of it, and patience turns out to be so endless that questions arise: can he really do something at least? Against this background, one will wonder: should the Belarusians blame themselves for their patience, when, as we see, not only they, but the leaders of the nuclear powers have to demonstrate it, moreover, demonstrate it virtually indefinitely.
There is no doubt that Minsk is doing this deliberately, knowing full well that there will be no consequences. Another image trap for Putin in this situation is that, well, he can't get the bit between his teeth and present himself to the public as an ardent defender of journalists, the media, and freedom of speech. In Russia, things are now only slightly better with this than in Belarus, but in general, the trends are the same. To publicly fight for the "beloved," demonstratively destroying others is to look petty and funny. The Kremlin cannot allow this to happen. Therefore, with a probability of 99%, he will again get away with the scandal provoked by the official Minsk out of the blue. For the umpteenth time.
I would like to say that all this is relevant only if the KP really has some kind of Putin's sympathies, which is far from a fact, and Venediktov's words are not a diagnosis. However, the reality is that just this truth does not matter anymore: the information background is formed by a bright label and massive replication.
The Russian authorities are very concerned about how they are seen and perceived in the world. They really want to be seen as equal in politics and omnipotent in their spheres of influence. However, practice shows that the same West perfectly sees a completely different picture - for the most part, the Kremlin is unable to dictate its will even to the "last ally" totally dependent on it. And this ally himself, quite consciously, strengthens this image over and over again.
It is difficult to say what significance this all has for the current Belarusian situation, taking into account the fact that, indeed, almost certainly there will be no consequences. We can only be sure that such micro-victories strengthen Lukashenka's image among the nomenklatura and officials as a strong leader capable of pushing through his decisions even in spite of Moscow. Tactically, this plays into the hands of the regime.
Strategically, no matter how things are at a particular moment, there is always the possibility that the Kremlin's patience will burst, because the tail can't be wagging the dog endlessly. However, as practice shows, the probability that this will happen is rather small. In a political sense, this means something that has been repeatedly voiced by various politicians and experts: Russia's influence on the situation in Belarus can be much lower in reality than it is commonly believed.
This means that under a certain set of circumstances, Belarusians may have a historical chance to independently determine their future with minimal external influence.
Petr Kuznetsov, Telegram