The Old System Is Being Destroyed by the Regime Itself

• Yuri Pshennik
• 13.05.2021, 11:15

The siloviki will not save it either.

Recent events indicate that Lukashenka is nevertheless launching the process of "restructuring" and the transit of power. Perhaps unconsciously, but maybe he did realize that the system, which he so lovingly built for more than a quarter of a century, in the end, turned out to be unviable. In other words: without him and external support, it will inevitably collapse. Both are not at all eternal, moreover, both factors will come to naught even during the life of millennials, let's say, but rather even earlier. However, even with him in charge, the system is no longer viable. Therefore, he begins to rebuild it in the hope that the new structure will be more stable and will be able to exist on its own.

In my opinion, this is unlikely, but the fact that the time for changes has come even for the regime is already true. It is difficult to say how long all this will last, but the fact that the" ice has moved " is obvious to everyone, including the top. In any case, the structure will no longer remain in the same state of "stability." In this sense, the events of the past year were not in vain, they still brought the system out of balance, and it began to change.

Although, this perestroika is not for the better but the worse, a kind of perestroika with a minus sign. After all, it is scary for the authorities to move forward, and to move to democracy is generally unacceptable. So they decided to go back - somewhere in the era of Stalin and Hitler. Well, or other similar "brothers" such as Muammar, Saddam, and Slobodan. For some reason, the dictators are absolutely sure that those systems were very effective but collapsed and were condemned by humanity by accident. Or as a result of the intrigues of enemies. Something like that is stated. Thus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, talking to journalists, recalled the fate of the presidents of Serbia, Libya, Iraq, and Venezuela, tut.by reports. “Muammar Gaddafi. Listen, who was he interfering with? I also knew him very well, he came to us. Well, he lived in this tent, he liked it - well, let him live. He did not live in palaces. He wasn't liked. Because he began to raise Africa. At the expense of his own money, he found an underground lake, began pumping fresh water. He wanted to raise Africa. And the colonialists do not need this. Behold in depth."

He clearly identifies himself with them, and the direction of the "reforms" of our regime is precisely in this direction. In general, the transition to a new state is now inevitable. The only question is whether this new reality will be worse than the existing one, as the regime wants, or will the country still have a better future, as its people dream. It won't be the same for sure. As a matter of fact, the authoritarian-paternalistic system, when loyalty is achieved mainly at the expense of "a shot of vodka and cracklings" and repression is targeted and selective, is replaced by a rigid dictatorship. The repressions are now indiscriminate, massive, and can affect anyone. At the same time, they do not even strongly depend on the degree of loyalty. The "social package" is cut to a minimum, and, in the long term, it is possible that it will be reduced to zero. And all this restructuring with a minus sign will inevitably be accompanied by economic degradation and a decrease in investment attractiveness. However, this is already happening. And what the new system will be is, in general, an open question.

Not everything is clear about the transit of power. Yes, this is the worst transit option. Our regime traditionally chooses the worst possible scenario. However, in this stalemate situation, any option for the transit of power is “the lesser of evils” in comparison with maintaining the status quo. For example, after Stalin's death, the power went to his closest and seemingly loyal associates. But they did not continue the policy of Stalinism. This policy was too odious and hopeless, and this was already obvious to the Stalinist entourage. They were just afraid to argue for the time being. It seems that, among the current elite, there is already an understanding of the historical hopelessness and doom of Lukashism, but everyone is afraid to oppose it. But, in the event of a transfer of power, even they are unlikely to continue their previous policy. Although the voiced version of the transit of power from this, naturally, will not become more legitimate. As it contradicted the Constitution, it will continue to contradict it - unless it will be changed quickly. But this, I repeat, is still better than keeping the system unchanged. And, in the latter case, it will collapse over time, but with even more serious consequences.

The siloviki will no longer save this system, just like the Security Council. Yes, they will protect their "commander-in-chief" for now - well, as long as there is no real threat. But will they protect the country's economy from accelerating degradation or, say, sanctions? The question is rhetorical. And, without the economy, the "power bloc" is also degrading, since perestroika with a minus sign hits everyone without exception.

The old system is being destroyed by the regime itself. It is not known whether he will be able to build neo-Stalinism or some kind of Juche instead. The main thing is that the people should not agree to Juche. Then, in the end, it will be them who will determine what to build - a developed, civilized, and comfortable for life country or something else.

Yuri Pshennik, Our Opinion