What Threat Avia Case with Ryanair Brings for the Cockroach

• 25.05.2021, 9:16

The losses will be spectacular.

The EU will impose a blockade on Belarusian civil aviation due to the forced landing of a Ryanair flight. RBK investigated the possible consequences of an air ban on transit through Belarus, as well as on the European flights of the state-owned Belavia.

The EU countries will ban the Belarusian airlines use the airspace of European countries, said the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, after a summit (held in the evening on May 24). It discussed the incident with the Ryanair landing in Minsk. The day before, May 23, the Ryanair aircraft flying from Athens to Vilnius was forced to change the course and land in Belarus due to the bomb threat on board. Information about the threat was not confirmed. However, one of the passengers, co-founder of Telegram channel NEXTA Raman Pratasevich, was detained.

"The summit instructs the EU Council to take the necessary measures to ban Belarusian air carriers from flying in EU airspace and close access to [EU states'] airports for flights operated by such airlines," the summit said in a final statement. The decision is not in effect yet. The EU Council at the ministerial level must agree on it and approve it.

The Lithuanian government was one of the first to respond to the incident in Minsk. It has already banned local airports to accept and dispatch flights routed over the territory of Belarus. Belavia, the largest Belarusian state airline, had to suspend flights to that country. AirBaltic, the largest airline carrier in the Baltic States in terms of passenger numbers, refused to fly to Minsk and through Belarus. The Dutch KLM also announced the decision to temporarily suspend flights over the territory of Belarus.

Politicians of the United States and the UK also joined the ban. Ukraine will also consider suspending flight connection with Belarus, said president Volodymyr Zelensky.

RBK looked into the consequences for Belarusian companies if the discussed bans become a reality.

How much Belarus makes on air transit

The termination of flights in the airspace of Belarus will affect the national provider of air navigation services, Belaeronavigatsia. Before the pandemic, its dispatchers used to serve about 300 thousand flights a year. This figure has been growing in recent years due to the desire of airlines to avoid eastern Ukraine after the tragedy with the Malaysia Airlines plane. It was shot down by a missile from the Buk M1 air defence system in the sky over the Donetsk region on July 17, 2014.

"In 2019, we serviced 325,000 aircraft a year. Traffic density was quite high. However, the pandemic dropped it by about 80% in the most critical months," said Leonid Churo, general director of Belaeronavigatsia, on May 15. Minsk air traffic control centre serves 980 companies from 100 countries. Eighty three per cent of them are transit flights, 17% land in Belarus, reports Minsk News. Russian companies use the airspace of the country most of all - about 30%.

All cargo flights from the Middle East to the United States, from Europe to China, cross the airspace of Belarus, adds CEO of the Friendly Avia Support consulting company Alexander Lanetsky. According to his estimates, Belaeronavigatsia was able to earn up to $50-70 million annually by providing air traffic control services to foreign airlines in recent years before the pandemic. He says the contribution of the aviation industry to the GDP of the country amounts to 2-3%. RBK sent inquiries to Belaeronavigatsia and Minsk airport.

How Belavia business runs

Recently civil aviation of Belarus has been focused on the development and servicing of international flights, as it has practically no domestic flights due to the small size of the country. The fleet of Belavia consists of 31 aircraft, including the most modern Boeing 737 MAX and Embraer E195-E2, which has been implementing the model of a transit carrier for several years. The absence of direct flights between Russia and Ukraine since 2015 served as the impetus for this. In 2015, the share of transfer passengers on regular Belavia flights was 34%; at the end of 2017, it was already 49%. Most of it (83.3%) served flights between Russia and Ukraine, as follows from Belavia's reports.

Air transportation in Belarus in general and Belavia has been on the rise before the COVID-19 pandemic, Lanetsky notes. Even now, Belavia flights sometimes remain the only way for Europeans to travel between countries. Despite the coronavirus restrictions, the airline has not stopped the flights completely, the expert notes. Because of the pandemic, Belavia made a net loss of 92 million Belarusian rubles (about 2.7 billion rubles) against a profit of 68 million Belarusian rubles (2 billion rubles) in 2019.

"If Belavia faces flight restrictions to the European Union and Ukraine joins the ban, it will be a severe blow to the airline's business," Lanetsky believes. It would be extremely hard for the carrier to refocus on other destinations, including Russia, because of the stringent intergovernmental agreements. RBK sent a request to the press service of Belavia. Russian airlines did not stop flying through Belarus. "Flights of Russian airlines to Belarus and across it are carried out as usual within the framework of existing agreements based on a bilateral agreement on air communication," the press service of Rosaviatsia told RBK.

The pandemic also made Minsk airport one of the largest hubs in Eastern Europe. The most popular destinations were Kyiv, Istanbul, Amsterdam, Paris, and Warsaw. According to Friendly Avia Support, Belavia used to carry out the majority of flights at Minsk airport before the pandemic - over 70% (now even more). The Russian airlines accounted for about 20% of flights, while European airlines handled about 10% of flights. Therefore, the departure of European companies will not be a great loss for Minsk, as the reduction of Belavia flights, argues Lanetsky.

The hub for the Russians

Many Russian tourists have begun to use Belarus as a transit hub after the ban on flights to Georgia, Ukraine, Egypt, and, recently, Turkey. Immediately after the imposition of restrictions on flights to Turkish resorts in April 2021, there was a sharp increase in interest in flying to Turkey from Belarus due to the growing number of coronavirus cases, said a representative of the ticket search service Aviasales Janis Dzenis. Users began looking for alternative routes. Tickets from Minsk to Istanbul cost 14 thousand rubles. There are no restrictions for Russians, so it's important to get to the airport in Minsk, he points out.

Belarus is in the top 10 popular destinations on Ozon.Travel in January-April 2021, adds CEO Mikhail Osin. Minsk is the final destination in 70% of bookings. As for the transfer in the country, the further route of Russians more often involves Ukraine (16% of all bookings in 2021). Georgia and Kazakhstan - 8 and 3%, respectively - are other popular destination points.

Russian tour operators have no programs involving transportation to the resorts through Minsk. Independent tourists use the hub, says the executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia Maya Lomidze.