Russia’s Last Round
- 12.12.2022, 12:15
The Russian Federation is living out the most shameful moment in its history.
Is the notorious Rus'-troika rushing around in circles, not knowing peace and not giving it to anyone? Worse, it is going through a downward spiral. The essence of Russia has not changed for hundreds of years, so history repeats itself. And comes to the end.
For example, the ongoing war is in many ways similar to the Crimean one, which exposed the rottenness of the autocracy. But there are also closer parallels. Remember how surprising and unexpected were the words “perestroika”, “democratization”, “empowerment”, references to the Economist magazine, to the Sankei newspaper, to the American The Des Moines Register, The New York Times and the French L'Aurore, in the reports of the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU?
However — an example of the Russian time loop — this is not about Gorbachev. In January-February 1959, Khrushchev spoke in this style at the 21st Party Congress. Then the 7-year plan was adopted, and the conclusion was drawn that socialism in the USSR had won a complete and final victory, that the Soviet country was entering a period of full-scale construction of a communist society. It was expected to be built by 1980 ...
Compared to 1913
This year served as the starting point for Soviet achievements, the last peaceful year before the start of the First World War, before the October Revolution and other cataclysms. I remember the collection “USSR - USA (figures and facts)”, 1961, with many tables (they began exactly in 1913) and hilarious drawings. The publication proved the advantages of socialism in competition with America and predicted the imminent promotion of the USSR to world economic leaders. At the same time, the authors resorted to all sorts of tricks. For example, the production of tractors was given in terms of 15-horsepower, they say, this was the standard power of a row-crop tractor in 1913. In fact, of course, in such a simple way they improved Soviet indicators. For they were by no means amazing.
Later on, with the help of Angus Maddison's book “The Outlines of the World Economy 1-2030. Essays on Macroeconomic History”, I summarized the data on GDP growth for the leading countries of the world in a table, from which it is clear that in the period from 1913 to 1988 the USSR was much inferior to Japan, Canada and the USA, lagged behind Italy and only slightly ahead of Germany and France.
But in 1959, everyone hoped for a brighter future. “Now our country is superior to the United States both in terms of pace and in absolute annual production growth. We are walking four times faster and adding more products every year, so it is now much easier to catch up with the Americans,” Khrushchev said at the congress. And piled up a hulk of plans. In 7 years, the USSR was to produce as much as in the previous 40 years, and take a decisive step in creating the material and technical base of communism and ensuring the victory of the USSR in peaceful economic competition with the capitalist countries. The new ambitious plan was to allow the Soviet Union to “catch up and overtake” the United States and by 1965 to come out on top in the world both in absolute production and per capita.
What to say about this? Voluntarism, as was later said. Yes, and the population that has seen all sorts of things treated the rosy plans with a share of irony and not without humor, although in general we felt optimistic — like, the thaw, the satellite, Gagarin, the flourishing of book publishing and construction, including by individuals! But soon the Cuban Missile Crisis broke out, winter dust storms began, causing crop failures, queues for crappy bread, and already in 1963 optimism began to wane — along with Khrushchev's popularity. Yeah, right.
It is possible to sum up the results of that next social attempt. They didn’t build communism, they lagged behind the United States even more, and if the 1980s were remembered for anything, then it’s the war in Afghanistan, the flawed Olympics, the death of Vysotsky and a vague feeling that, if not the imminent collapse of the evil empire (Reagan so rightfully said!) is coming, then the descent, decay, fragility of the structure, exhaustion of the project. Exactly the same feeling has now appeared in relation to Russia...
Then this feeling did not deceive — after some 11 years (a moment for history) the USSR collapsed. Looks like it won't disappoint now. Putin in 2008, I remember, also promised the land flowing with milk and honey: by 2020, the average salary will reach $ 2,700, for a family of three there will be at least 100 square meters of living space, the middle class will make up more than half of the population, and Russia will leave the “oil needle” and establish itself in the status of a leading world power. There is no choice, he said: “we will have to become a great innovative socially oriented power, without giving up competitive raw material advantages”.
The only difference is that Khrushchev believed in what he said and really dreamed of the happiness of people, while Putin knew perfectly well that he was lying, and he did not care about people, sitting in the Kremlin bell tower! Ten years have passed, all this turned out to be empty words, Russia is experiencing the most shameful moment in its history, Putinism has become the apotheosis of vulgarity, meanness and general degradation, but the fate of Khrushchev Putin has not yet befallen, and it is unlikely that he will be sent to retirement. I do not think that he will live to see the Hague with its cozy cells either ...
But as for the parallels, and what is symbolic in the context of our story, the peak of the new, already post-Soviet Russian prosperity came in 2013, exactly a century after the textbook 1913! The main thing, however, is not in the symbolism of the dates, but in the fact that the peak has already been passed.
2013. Russia without a future, future without Russia
Why 2013? Because the next year there was an attack on Ukraine, sanctions were imposed against Russia, and this was enough for the weak economy — already in 2021, that is, even before the current big war, the well-being of Russians decreased by 10%. That should have alerted the authorities. But come on, the authorities have other things to deal with! Putin attacked again, and the last prosperous year for the Russians was the pre-war one.
This time the sanctions are massive, fundamental (for example, the West's refusal of Russian energy sources) and aimed at the long term, up to the payment of reparations, denuclearization and the conviction of war criminals. Therefore, the population is facing decades of living in a poor and backward country, and I chose the maxim of the writer Viktor Erofeev for the subtitle. It briefly and accurately describes the future: it is not visible in Russia, things are bad in everything you think about, and will be even worse. Such situations, when all negative tendencies are focused at one time and in one place, when every alley is a dead end, are called the perfect storm.
So, Russia was already in a demographic abyss, aggravated by covid, and in 2021 the natural population decline exceeded one million. Now, thanks to the war, the deaths of men at the front and the exodus abroad of the most able-bodied ages, a real disaster is brewing. Brides, left without grooms, will also be drawn abroad, ladies are generally more mobile in this regard, and the aging country will be left without the most intelligent youth.
It’s not worth talking about the economy: the sanctions hit both imports and exports, and for a resource-rich country that buys literally everything from microcircuits, machine tools, cars, seeds to condoms and cat food, this is just a knockout blow. Even with the money that is still coming in, you can’t buy even half of what you are used to.
So, after the attack on Ukraine, 18 out of 20 Renault, Toyota, BMW, Nissan, VAG (Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi, Skoda), Mercedes-Benz, Infiniti, Ford and other car factories stopped working in Russia. Most companies explained the stoppage of work with supply problems accessories. As a result, in October, sales of new cars fell by almost 63% in annual terms, and taxi services faced the impossibility of updating the fleet.
The impact of sanctions on this industry was also felt by state structures, and the most important, the power ones, on which the country rests only! Thus, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs in November was unable to purchase 2.8 thousand vehicles for the traffic police for 4.5 billion rubles. The traffic police loved Skoda Octavia and Hyundai Solaris, and now there is not even Lada Vesta in the right quantity and all bells and whistles. Chinese cars are too expensive. Will they be forced to buy Lada Granta or, God forgive me, localized Vesta?!
And one more indicative problem is coming: the issuance of passports. How can you make it in Russia without a passport?! There, even the Second Advent will not happen without a document! The Ministry of Internal Affairs cannot purchase imported dot matrix printers. All major companies (Epson, Lexmark) have left the country, and there is no production in Russia, or a stock of printheads. Enough for a year, and then what? Import by parallel import without guarantees and technical support?
This is an example of how sanctions deprive Russia of technology, driving it into the category of second, if not third world countries. Together with them, international isolation works, and it is safe to say that this unreasonable country has committed economic suicide, that in the long run it has no future. This refers to the political future, too, by the way. What terms are we talking about?
Let's turn to our parallels: Khrushchev — and the USSR was a power not like the Russian Federation, powerful, united by ideology, surrounded by allies! — dreamed of building communism by 1980, but only 11 years after its onset, the Soviet Union bit the dust. Putin promised to equip Russia by 2020, but it is unlikely that it will last at least five years in its current form. No, no, the territory and the population will not disappear anywhere, everyone will not scatter and separate, but living in most of this territory will be uncomfortable and unfun. So we can agree with Igor Yakovenko: the Russia project is coming to an end.
Yuri Kirpichev, Observer