Andrei Sannikov: 2023 Will Be A Crucial Year

• 16.12.2022, 10:24

Ukraine has made significant progress at the front closer to winter.

Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign, gave a great interview on the Ukrainian Youtube channel UKRLIFE.TV. The main issues were the war in Ukraine and the liberation of Belarus. The website Charter97.org chose the most interesting moments of the conversation.

“2023 will be a crucial year. Why crucial? Ukraine can set its own agenda and change pessimistic forecasts. Let's remember: "take Ukraine in three days", "take Kyiv". The most optimistic Western representatives gave Ukraine no more than two or three weeks. In general, no one expected that the entire Ukrainian people would rise to a holy war for their freedom and independence, overturning all forecasts,” the leader of the European Belarus believes.

Andrei Sannikov noted that Ukraine has made significant progress at the front closer to winter:

– The desire and ability to defeat Russia strengthened (otherwise this war will never end) and a fairly specific peace plan appeared, President Zelensky announced it at the G20. Of course, there are some idealistic points regarding, for example, ideology (I think that it is the wrong time for it), but there are clear instructions on the necessary steps to be done and the way of action.

This plan was positively accepted by the G7 countries, moreover, the G7 confirmed its intention to help Ukraine as much as needed, as well as its intention to deliver justice to war criminals.

I believe this trend will continue next year. Ukraine will change the agenda in order to protect itself and this will really benefit our interests. Because the representatives of two related regimes, the Putin and Lukashenka regimes, should become prisoners in the dock of an international tribunal for crimes against humanity and war crimes.

I will be optimistic but cautious. I cannot say that the war will end next year, but I really want to get my hopes up on it. However, I am sure that there will be a turning point and Russia will be even more weakened which means that it will be possible to strike a decisive blow.

“Lukashenka feels animal fear of the Kalinouski Regiment”

Speaking about Belarus, Andrei Sannikov draws attention to the fact that if it were not for the war, the Lukashenka regime could have gone:

– Only Putin helped maintain this regime and, as we see, he needed it to launch the invasion of Ukraine. If Lukashenka had not retained power with the help of the Kremlin in 2020, there would have been no attack on Ukraine. After all, Belarus is a very important base of operations. If we started with the fact that Russia expected to take "Kyiv in three days", then this base was intended for the capture of the Ukrainian capital.

Analyzing the situation in the country, the leader of the European Belarus comes to the conclusion that the Lukashenka regime is in a catastrophic situation:

— There is a further economic collapse and the economy is completely getting out of control. Lukashenka is trying to act with his former methods: he orders “milk to appear on its own” as well as “sour cream and butter to whip themselves”. Nothing is happening: it is a destroyed and non-modernized economy, and he is also trying to imprison those managers whom he considers disloyal, heads of enterprises and ordinary workers.

Everything is collapsing. He is forced to raise spending on law enforcement agencies next year: an increase of 40% is included in the state budget. Lukashenka is trying to keep power only by force.

Every day we have arrests and trials. Of course, the situation is terrible, people are living in great fear, but this is an indicator of Lukashenka's strongest fear. Hence these daily arrests. This is animal fear. He doesn't know who he should arrest next.

Moreover, there is constant pressure from Russia to have some kind of mobilization. We have hidden mobilization. We have daily military activities: either they announce manoeuvres or Lukashenka announces a combat readiness check. It is clear that this is done on the orders of the Kremlin in order to hold Ukraine and the northern front hostage.

Andrei Sannikov also speaks about Lukashenka's fear of Belarusian volunteers fighting in Ukraine:

– It is clear that Lukashenka's army is simply not capable of combat. The Kalinouski Regiment is fighting in Ukraine and causing them wild fear. They are talking about Belarusian volunteers on TV almost every day.

They are presented as "bandits who are preparing for an invasion of Belarus and an armed seizure of power". It is clear that it is the result of fear and that Lukashenka is really scared. This is the first time an armed unit that says "we will not put up with this regime" has appeared in Belarus.

They are fighting for Ukraine, but this is a prototype of our future army and future armed forces. The position of the Kalinouski Regiment was created on clear national-democratic grounds. They do not recognize any Kremlin influence. Not without reason, the Belarusian volunteers took the name of our hero Kastus Kalinouski, who raised a rebellion against the Russian Empire fighting for Belarus. He was enjoying people's respect and defending independence with arms.

“Putin and Lukashenka relations between are the criminal world”

Andrei Sannikov believes that the West will still have to resolve the issue of the Lukashenka regime:

– Democratic states have no other choice. Dictatorial regimes are dangerous. Yes, there are more or less authoritarian regimes, but dictatorship, combined with totalitarian control over society, inevitably leads to war. After all, this is a nutrient broth for such dictatorships as Putin and Lukashenka's. They are at war with their people within their countries: they imprison everyone, unleash wild repressions, and then they make a bloody breath, flare their nostrils and keep moving on. They will never stop unless they are stopped.

I say that we have never had such a favorable situation: today at least forty million Ukrainians are fighting for us, for the European future of Ukraine and Belarus. They are fighting evil, fighting dictatorship, fighting for the liberation of the entire region, because Europe cannot exist without Ukraine and cannot be complete without Belarus.

The leader of the European Belarus also notes the mistakes made by Western politicians in relation to our country. The lifting of sanctions and contacts with the Lukashenka regime are among them:

– Belarus has not seen such a flow of visitors for a long time as it was in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Including the US Secretary of State, other dignitaries and the participants in the Munich Security Conference. All of them looked like model democrats. They came to bow to the dictator and to persuade him not to be friends with Putin. They believed that there are some political, real international relations there. But these are the relations of crime bosses, the criminal world relations. It's impossible to imagine a thief-in-law standing against another thief-in-law, especially when one of them controls their general purse. It's just impossible.

Andrei Sannikov made several suggestions regarding the possible reasons why Putin needs Lukashenka:

– Perhaps Lukashenka plays some kind of "seer" lines. He is looking at Putin and starts saying what, as he thinks, Putin himself wants to say. Sometimes he hits, then Putin jerks his legs and “dances” less, sometimes he doesn’t, and then Putin declares him a public reprimand.

Maybe he is needed in the role of a psychotherapist. Lukashenka says that “Putin is great”, but no one talks about him like that, even his own servants started to oppose him.

Central Asia, which used to be quite submissive and dependent on Russia, begins to show its disdain for the Kremlin's master, and he is very sensitive to the violation of the hierarchy. He needs Lukashenka, who sings sweetly to get his penny, in such a role.

Putin, of course, can give the order to remove Lukashenka and annex Belarus when the time comes. But this means that the war will not end. Then, not only Ukraine, but the whole of Europe will be in danger. After all, the Belarusian bridgehead poses danger not only to Kyiv but also the most likely threat to the Suwalki Gap, Poland and Lithuania. This is a threat of a tank breakthrough to Kaliningrad together with other forces. It's not just words, not a theory. They've been planning this during the notorious "West" manoeuvres in Belarus. This will mean a world war. All the good manners will be forgotten. All the boundaries and all red lines will be crossed.

"Revolution Is Not Over"

During the conversation, Andrei Sannikov named several triggers that could serve as the beginning of the uprising in Belarus:

- The trigger could be a change in the situation on the front, the coming of the war close to the border, or maybe the crossing of the border to Belarus. After all, if the Russian army is deployed on the border with Ukraine and prepares to march on Kyiv again, it will become a legitimate target for the AFU.

Moreover, I will say that hatred for this regime has only increased. It is so obvious that Lukashenka cannot control the country the way a sane manager should, because everything is falling apart. He is certainly trying, by shouting and repressing, to make things go back to the way they used to be, but life is only getting worse.

The security and law enforcement officers are of course paid twice as much as teachers, they have soft loans, housing, but they don't live in an "airless space". During the 2020 protests they were kept in barracks and fed with something "inspiring", but today they come to their families, they come to their neighbours and they will never see love there, being chasteners.

The revolution that began in 2020 is not over. The mobilising forces, the people, the driving forces that were there - the economy, the lack of social justice - will come out again at any moment. To the streets, factories, plants - it will happen.

Are law enforcers ready to turn in the dictator to the Kremlin? Andrei Sannikov is sure that Lukashenka is not supported by the military:

- They will gladly turn him in. The top of the Belarusian law enforcers, including Khrenin, secretary of the Security Council Volfovich, obey the orders from the Kremlin. They are Russian, from Russian families, from "Russian World". Lukashenka is senior to them at the moment, but their commander-in-chief resides in the Kremlin. Since they are taking part in the war and are making public statements supporting the war, it is logical that they will obey the orders to continue the war, coming from the Kremlin. Lukashenka has no support here.

The European Belarus leader believes that Lukashenka has lost his subjectivity, and the possible order for the Belarusian army to attack Ukraine will be given by the Kremlin. However, the opposition politician notes that the Belarusians may move in a completely different direction:

- I don't think Lukashenka was informed on February 24 when the strikes were launched from the territory of Belarus, he was not informed about the barbaric shelling of infrastructure and civilian objects. I do not think he knew anything. Lukashenka is being used so that he praises the power of the dilapidated Russian weapons. He is not needed for anything else.

It was not for nothing that Shoigu came, and before that there had been statements that a joint grouping would be set up - this is stipulated in the military doctrines of Lukashenka and Putin. I think that Shoigu came and told Lukashenka that this grouping would be under the command of the General Staff of the Russian army.

Therefore Lukashenka is probably needed as a retransmission unit. The Kremlin will give the order, and Lukashenka will retransmit it. But he is certainly scared. He really does not want to receive such an order, as it will be the end for him soon.

Look, we were talking about the protests of 2020. The Belarusian army is a part of society, moreover those, who participated in protests in 2020, have been drafted into it. If he gives an order, will the people of the protests go silently to kill the Ukrainians they support? Or will they turn their weapons against the regime? I think the second scenario is more probable.