Economist: It's Not Possible to Keep the Same Number of Miners with the Same Wages
- 14.02.2022, 8:43
Sanctions are starting to take effect.
Academic Director of BEROC Katerina Bornukova believes sanctions could seriously affect the situation in the regions, writes Belarusians and Market website.
The effect of sanctions on the labor market is barely noticeable so far. Even economically, it has not been strongly felt, as most of the sanctions are measures of delayed action. If one looks at the restrictions that have already come into force, for example, against the Belarusian airlines, we can see the air cargo market is more affected. There was no such negative impact on passenger traffic.
It is not possible to see the impact of sanctions on some other industries according to the main indicators. The statistics on them has been closed. However, the employment in oil refining increased, as well as in the production of chemical products. It confirms no effect of sanctions on these industries so far. One should understand that the restrictive measures haven't worked yet in the past year.
"Nevertheless, the sanctions, when they come into force, will be a challenge. The enterprises they will affect, in particular, the two major refineries and Belaruskali, are located in relatively small towns and are backbone enterprises. It means that the salaries of their employees make up the main purchasing power of the residents of these settlements and set the pace for the rest of the local business. If the companies affected by the sanctions start cutting jobs or salaries (some of them will have to do it, despite the budget support), it will noticeably influence the local economy", considers Bornukova.
If nothing changes, the sanctions are a long-term issue. In such circumstances, if Belarus manages to sell conditionally only half of the potash, it will be impossible to keep the same number of miners with the same salary. Moreover, the restrictive measures will affect the related industries.
"Take at least the Belarusian Railroad as one of the biggest employers. Losses from the transportation of potash will affect the labor market not in a single city but throughout the country," the expert shares his opinion.