Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: Expert Outlines Five Scenarios
- 23.02.2022, 14:03
They are probable already in the short term.
Iliya Kusa, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, believes that further Russian aggression against Ukraine is very probable already in the short term. He outlined five possible scenarios for further developments.
This is reported in an article by RBC-Ukraine.
First scenario
The first one, according to the expert, is the large-scale invasion into Ukraine from different directions (Donbass will be the main base of operations), which the West has been constantly talking about in recent months.
Second scenario
The second, as Kusa notes, is highly unlikely. It is a conditional "Pridnestrovie 2.0", when Russian troops would come to the current borders of the Certain Areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, stop there and effectively freeze the conflict for many years with the status quo being preserved.
Third scenario
The third scenario is a continuation of what has been observed in Donbas in recent years: a low-intensity military conflict accompanied by constant political pressure.
However, as the expert noted, taking into account the fact that Russian regular troops with appropriate weapons will no longer be hiding in the Certain Areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, the situation on the front will become comparatively more difficult for Ukraine.
Fourth scenario
The fourth option, according to Kusa, is a conditional "confederation," involving a step-by-step military escalation (first, an attempt to reach the administrative border of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, then to break through a "corridor" to Crimea, possibly to break into Kharkiv region, etc.) in order to impose to Ukraine an unfavorable political agreement.
Fifth scenario
The expert considers most probable an attempt to implement a conditional scenario of "Georgia 2.0" that implies repetition of aggressive actions of the Russian Federation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - when Russian regular troops together with local militants conduct several "peace enforcement operations" with imposing of ceasefire conditions that are not advantageous to Ukraine.
Kusa foresees a possible attempt to organise new "mousetraps", which are sure to provoke harsh reactions among Ukrainians, including in Kiev (and serve as an additional factor of destabilisation).
Eventually, Kusa believes, Russian troops will try to reach the border of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and entrench themselves on the new demarcation line.