"Irreversible Events in Belarus That Undermine the Junta"
- 18.04.2022, 12:20
In June, many businesses will begin to collapse.
Nick and Mike Telegram channel continues to collect data on the state of individual sectors of the Belarusian economy:
- Let's start with the forest. In recent years, the junta has been engaged in deforestation too hard. After August 2020, forestry was one of the sectors which showed phenomenal growth.
We have already written that logging was held beyond plans and reports. They bought harvesters and built pellet mills (of course, with credit money, which now one cannot pay back). There has never been any domestic demand for pellets. It means that all these entities have simply lost the market after the sanctions and are now on the verge of shutdown. There is still time to fulfill the previously concluded contracts until June before the EU sanctions come into effect.
It is clear that one attempts to deceive. The government repealed Decree no. 714 to trade planks without an Exchange. Contracts have been concluded retroactively. But this is of little help. After the ban on road haulage, things will get even worse. All the more, rail haulage can also collapse at any time. Add to this the fact that the industry provided smuggling of cigarettes to Europe, in which even Kronospan was involved.
On top of that, certification - FSC and SBP - has left the country. Belarus is turning into a grey area in terms of forestry as well.
The blue-fingered set a task to restore everything that was cut down in forests before. Only he forgot that there are no saplings. One of the reasons was that the World Bank loan was used to buy harvesters, not to build a seed-growing center in the Gomel region. Now there is an ecological disaster.
They are frantically trying to sell planks to China and Azerbaijan, but prices are falling. A big problem is that companies can't find containers to deliver to these countries. Maersk refused to work, insurance companies do not insure cargo, and Russians do not let in.
At the same time, the junta has failed to provide its people with firewood. There are lines for two or three months, and prices are constantly rising. But it is not surprising - the Belarusians were ignored long ago. The main thing is to live for today.
In general, the industry is going bankrupt. We send greetings to Yura Les who is responsible for the total breakdown. In June, the companies are going to collapse. Forestry employs 30 thousand people, private and state processing employs another 60 thousand. And these are all taxpayers and employers in the districts. Just one forestry enterprise employs 300-500 people. The key feature of this sector is that it provided jobs in the districts and villages.
Now many woodworking enterprises work 3-4 days a week. The Borisov forestry that used to export almost all of its products has had an idle time since mid-March. The warehouse is full. If earlier Belarus could sell a plank of the 4th grade on the informal deal, now one can buy the one of the 2nd grade. The price is sky-high, though.
One must realize that Belarus undergoes irreversible events which are undermining the junta, against the background of the war which is now occupying much space in the informational field. That August 2020 margin of safety is running out. It is getting harder to count on support from Russia, which itself is under tough sanctions. That is why he Lackei very strange things ministry's somersaults in the direction of the West will become more frequent. One should make it before 9 May. If the Kremlin fails in Donbas, it will be another pair of shoes.