Lukashenka Creates Danger For Himself
- VALERY KARBALIEVICH
- 5.06.2022, 9:46
If there were 50 armed people in each village council in 2020, then we would have a completely different scenario of events.
On May 27, Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin announced that they were going to create the People's Militia in the country. Belarus already has a similar institution, and it is called the “Territorial Defence”. It is not clear how the "People's Militia" differs from "Territorial Defence".
On June 3, Lukashenka, in his own way, tried to explain what he meant: “And I thought that, just in case, we need to have this People's Militia, a group of people, at every village council. There will be few of them. Maybe 50 people... In the event of hostilities, the militia units can be transformed into a partisan movement. The People's Militia can be a reserve for the Territorial Defence."
Another fact from the same series. On May 29, another high-ranking official, Emergency Situations Minister Vadzim Siniauski, announced that his employees would receive service weapons by June 15.
Why do rescuers need firearms? It turns out that to combat riots and in case of external aggression. It is hardly possible to imagine that the employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations will stop the aggressor with the help of pistols.
On June 2, Lukashenka had a meeting with Ihar Shunevich, Chairman of the Belarusian Society of Hunters and Fishermen. One can ask, what does the ruler care about fishermen? He explained his interest in this society the next day.
It turned out that Lukashenka wanted to attract them (more than 90 thousand people) for his defence: “I say: will you be on the sidelines? One and a half are our current armies. Let's at least five thousand (they are excellent shooters), we will think about how to equip them... Your task is five thousand. You will be the commander of this corps or brigade whatever. The task is clear. Five thousand trained people is a force.”
All these facts are united by the fact that Lukashenka seeks to maximize the number of armed people in the country. That is, the more the better. The mass of the existing power ministries (not less than eight structures with the right of investigatory activities) occurs little for the security guarantee and calmness of one person.
The logic here is clear and obvious. The militarization of the state apparatus and all public life becomes the most important direction of state policy when violence is elevated to a cult and turns into a universal way to solve all problems in the country.
The security agencies have become a backbone element, the supporting structure of Lukashenka's state. Here is the last example: on May 31, Lukashenka held a meeting on improving the information policy. And the most remarkable thing about this event is the composition of the participants. There were five generals of the seven people at the meeting.
Even the Minister of Information was not invited.
But the very idea of maintaining power by increasing the number of armed men, and not by supporting society, is not entirely indisputable. Since at the time of the political crisis it can have the opposite effect. In this case, an increase in quantity inevitably leads to a decrease in quality and a drop in political loyalty. There is an inverse relationship here.
Armed people who have left the subordination of the ruler pose a great danger to the regime. If there were 50 armed people in every village council or microdistrict in 2020, as Lukashenka dreams of, then, I believe, we would have a completely different scenario of events. I'm afraid that in this case, the OMON and GUBOPiK would quickly retreat and hide in potatoes. Fighting women, pensioners or armed men are two different things.