Arkady Moshes: Lukashenka Does Everything Moscow Requires

• 9.06.2022, 12:24

The Belarusian dictator is an ideal politician for the Kremlin.

Arkady Moshes, director of the Eastern Neighborhood and Russia Studies Program at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, analyzes in an interview with Radio Svaboda whether Minsk is able to use the transit of Ukrainian grain to get sanctions lifted, and explains why Lukashenka was the ideal Belarusian leader for Moscow and remains, and states Lukashenka can no longer oppose the pressure from Moscow.

- The European Union has recently adopted another package of sanctions against the official Minsk. Can one say the EU has any clear strategy concerning Belarus? Or is it still a tactical response to some specific circumstances?

- I would not call it a strategy. Belarus is an addition to Russia. And this is logical. Belarus is an aggressor state from the point of view of international law. Moreover, the UN resolution states Belarus is responsible for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The fact that Minsk falls into this category automatically shapes many political approaches.

At the same time, Belarus is an internationally recognized independent state with formal sovereignty. In this respect, the attitude to Belarus will always differ from that to the DP or LPR, regardless of what happens next in the Russian-Belarusian relations. Lukashenka has finally cut himself off from the possibility of a new "reset" in a foreseeable future, the possibility of a repeat of 2015, and any attempts to find a common language with him.

Unfortunately, there is no clear picture of what kind of Belarus the West would like to see after the war and how it could achieve it. Whether the West would like to see Belarus as a member of the European family of nations, a country in the same category of relations with the European Union as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia - we do not know that yet. Hence, there is no strategy, as there is not even an "ideal" vision of the future relations with Belarus.

- Belarusians don't want to hear that their country is an "appendix" to Russia. Nevertheless, the sanctions are not as strong as against Russia; the West is still separating Moscow and Minsk.

- It's a pity to see to state it. Belarus had a chance to break out of this category. There was a historic chance in August 2020, which, unfortunately, the society and the country failed to use. If Russia somehow starts ending the sovereignty of Belarus and its admission into Russia, the West will certainly make attempts to somehow protect this sovereignty. This is, perhaps, all that one can specify now.

Certainly, Belarus is not taken as a fully independent entity during Ukraine's war with Russia. If Lukashenka (even more so the Belarusian people) had a real choice, Belarus would not have allowed its territory to be used for this aggression.

The sanctions also differ because they originate not only from what should be done but also from what can be done. By the way, I would not agree the sanctions imposed on Belarus are weaker than those imposed on Russia. However, the West understands these are different cases.

- Lukashenka is trying to use the situation with Ukrainian grain to try to play the "humanitarian card". Will he succeed in some sanctions lifted due to the grain issue?

- I think no. First, it is not taken as Lukashenka's independent position. It is precisely because Putin so enthusiastically supported the removal of sanctions against Belarus in exchange for the transportation of grain through Belarus that it became clear that the position is coordinated. This is an attempt to achieve at least a small crack in the armour of European sanctions to apply the same procedure to Russia later. Therefore, there is no independent position in Minsk.

Secondly. It is not obvious there is any sense in this route through Belarus. Ukrainian grain can get to Baltic ports bypassing the Polish border. The export of Ukrainian grain is a strategic problem for Ukraine, but it is not a global problem for global food security. I think all these attempts by Minsk to get sanctions softened will not lead to anything - the West will not agree to such "deals".

- Some of Lukashenka's statements led observers to claim that he was trying to "change his shoes". Two months ago, you said in an interview with Radio Svaboda that "Lukashenka is trying to ride the same horse again as he did it in 2008 and 2014. But now he won't." Has anything changed since then?

- I have long stopped being surprised that Lukashenka can express very different positions within the same speech. For a man who calls himself an "orthodox atheist," it is normal. He may have completely different concepts in his head, especially if he needs them.

I think he is trying to find ways to manoeuvre - but he is not succeeding. Moreover, his situation today is even worse than it was two months ago. Two months ago, we watched the situation in the light of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus. Today, we observe a certain escalation in the south of Belarus. Exercises, military training - it's hard to get rid of the impression that this is not happening on Lukashenka's initiative. Most likely, he is being instructed by Moscow on what to do to keep the Ukrainians under stress.

So, everything Lukashenka says loses sense against the background of what he does. He does provocative manoeuvres and other things. For 2 months after the publication of Makei's letter to the Europeans, Minsk has not received any response. The West rejected any contact with Lukashenka. The sanctions have only intensified. Lukashenka is trying to ride the same horse, but he fails.

- Belarus lives under a permanent threat of losing its sovereignty. There has been information that the Kremlin is allegedly considering the possibility of a referendum on the accession of Belarus. Can Moscow consider such ideas, and how can Lukashenka respond to them?

- I have recently been stating almost the same thing - there is no direct threat of losing the formal Belarusian sovereignty. To be more exact, there is no threat of formal annexation of Belarus. It is no secret that Belarus has been losing its sovereignty for all the years Lukashenka has been in power.

It is not clear what Russia can gain from the annexation of Belarus. When you conquer and annex Ukraine, the accession of Belarus becomes necessary in the context of the conditional restoration of the USSR. Without the accession of Ukraine, there is no point in the annexation of Belarus. It will not cause the same enthusiasm as the Crimea did.

Only new problems will emerge. Part of the Belarusian population will actively protest. The Kremlin saw how the Belarusians can protest two years ago.

In Russia, it is easier to achieve subordination of the population through repressive steps. It is easier than to come up with some complicated political schemes, in particular, with the annexation of Belarus. I believe there is no risk of Belarus formally losing its independence as a state.

The alliance of the Lukashenka and Putin regimes has reached the point where Lukashenka cannot resist Moscow's pressure anymore. In this sense, Lukashenka was the ideal ruler of Belarus for Moscow and remains so. Lukashenka does for Moscow everything that is required of him. He asks for very little in return, minimal economic subsidies. Compared to the war in Ukraine, the things the Belarusian regime is asking for are pennies.