Probability Of Russia's Collapse Increases: Three Key Factors
- 6.09.2022, 7:59
National outskirts remain potential hotspots.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted an invasive concept of foreign policy based on the notion of the "Russian world," the probability of the collapse of the Russian Federation itself, once the war in Ukraine is over, increases. There are three main prerequisites for this.
Valentin Kim, a political psychologist and expert on non-verbal communication, enumerated them, writes Telegraf.
According to him, there have always been many systemic contradictions in Russia, and not only losing the war but even freezing it threatens centrifugal processes in Russia.
"As soon as the central government weakens (it is weakening rapidly in Russia now, which is evident even in relation to its recent partners), separatist movements within Russia begins. All the contours of splits (along religious, social and other lines) sharpen," the psychologist explains.
Danger No. 1 for Russia is national outskirts. They remain potential hot spots despite the targeted assimilation policies of the Russian authorities.
"The Bashkirs, the Tatars, the Chechens, the Dagestanis make up a huge number of nationalities that have experience, if not of sovereignty, at least of some cultural independence. They remember it. This, in the context of the threat of the collapse of the Russian Federation, is Danger No. 1," Valentin Kim says.
Danger No. 2 is the large territory. A huge part of Russia is extremely sparsely populated and far from the center. It is not always logistically possible to provide distant regions with sufficient resources. They will have to switch to self-sufficiency.
"It means strengthening the local elites, the local authorities. Yes, the Kremlin has a clear policy to control all appointments. There's a reason why all local elections were actually cancelled under Putin. Governors and mayors are appointed, not elected. It strengthens the central government. But now, at a time of its weakening, it is the regions, especially distant ones, pose a serious threat to the integrity of the Russian Federation in its present form," the expert explains.
Danger No. 3 to the integrity of Russia is social inequality. It's very high.
"A huge number of people there live below the poverty line. The reaction of one or another enemy soldier proved that. It is dry hay that can break out instantly," Valentin Kim sums up.