Ukrainian Diplomat: Xi Jinping’s Policy Was A Failure

• 21.12.2023, 19:37

Who will win the confrontation between the USA and China in 2023?

The Charter97.org website continues to summarize the results of the year. What was 2023 like for world politics? We asked Ukrainian diplomat, political scientist, and expert at the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, Alexander Khara, about this:

– The first and most important result, given the ninth year of the war with the Russian Federation, is the support that Ukraine received from partners in military, financial, humanitarian and diplomatic terms.

In the context of this support, it is extremely important to note how the approaches to war have changed, first of all, of our European partners. They eventually realized that this was not just an existential war for Ukraine. This is a war that delays a possible conflict between Europe and the Russian Federation.

It is extremely important to me that the Germans, and especially the Social Democratic Party (SPD), are the engine that drives this change in Germany itself. After all, since the late 1960s, the SDP has always been inclined to take a softer position towards Moscow, search for compromises, without confrontation, and so on. Historic changes in the ideas of the leadership and party members are now taking place.

This is extremely important because maintaining this consolidating support and standing on the side of international law and Ukraine is extremely hard without Germany. They must realize that war could break out against them, so it is better and more profitable for them to help Ukraine so that we resolve our issues with Russia and reduce its aggressive potential. Meanwhile, Germany is also preparing for a conflict. I'll call this the most important thing to happen in 2023. Also, there were two important summits of NATO and the EU.

The European summit became very positive for us when, again, Germany insisted and actually found a “coffee break” formula for Orban to decide on Ukraine. It was a historic moment. This is a very good and motivating signal to Ukraine, as well as a sign to Russians (primarily Putin) that they do not have a veto right on Ukraine’s European diplomatic integration. Our country will never become a sphere of influence of the Russian Federation. We are well aware that this is a long process until we become members of the EU, but it has started.

– There were a lot of talks about the confrontation between the United States and China this year. Who has better count for 2023: Washington or Beijing?

– Washington, because if we consider this issue in detail, the first point is the internal situation in China. Emerging from the post-Covid coma has been extremely difficult for the Chinese economy. The second aspect is related to demographic changes in China. The Chinese leadership's "one family, one child" policy has proven to be a failure. We should also remember the crazy debts of Chinese cities, provinces, and territories. We are talking about an amount of over 15 trillion dollars.

All these internal problems are destabilizing the power of the Communist Party and Xi Jinping, who has cleared the political space. In general, there are certain instability signs in the country. The overall pace of development of China's economy has also decreased by more than half. All these internal reasons have weakened the PRC, and this is without taking into account serious external factors.

The Americans performed better during their dialogue this year. It is worth noting that the United States has more positive things in terms of consolidating the countries of the region in its camp. I mean, for example, rapprochement with India, which will help the United States deter China. Xi Jinping has claims to Indian territories, and Indians are also concerned about China's actions in the Indian Ocean.

I will also note the rapprochement between Japan and South Korea through American mediation. This is also an extremely important point, since these countries also feel Chinese pressure and, naturally, would like to resist it anyhow. Also, in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, both South Korea and Japan will be involved in this war by default, since the U.S. forces are deployed on their territory. The U.S. provides strategic security guarantees to both South Korea and Japan.

At the moment, the U.S. is definitely more successful in the confrontation with China. They are strengthening their navy and other means of deterrence. They are supporting Taiwan in different ways, strengthening networks of old and new alliances in the region to deter China.