‘Putin Is Feverishly Making Up Plans To Raise Stakes’

• 10.04.2023, 15:18

Will China interfere with the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus?

French President Emmanuel Macron, after a visit to China, called on Beijing to respond to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.

What is Xi Jinping's real position on the war in Ukraine? Will the Celestial Empire prevent the deployment of nuclear weapons in our country?

Oleh Bilokolos, an expert on foreign and security policy of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation, ex-adviser of the Ukrainian Embassy in Canada and Kenya, answered these and other questions for the website Charter97.org.

— What is behind the visit of the President of France to China?

— As far as I understand, during Macron's visit to China, it was about an exchange of views on the situation in the world, the war. However, I saw no signs that a common understanding of the situation had been reached. As diplomats say, “the parties exchanged visions”, that's all. I don't see any tangible results.

— What is China's actual position regarding the war in Ukraine?

— For a long time, as you know, there was no position at all. In Beijing, they got off with some kind of statements “for all that is good and against all that is bad”. Then a plan appeared that carries contradictions within itself.

They talk about respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, but at the same time nothing is said about the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. This plan left some strange impression. It was skeptically received both in Ukraine and in the West among those countries that help Ukraine resist aggression.

After that, there was Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow, during which I did not hear anything intelligible. In general, it is difficult even to describe any position of the PRC.

Probably, China to some extent is even satisfied with the current situation. It gets the opportunity to promote its products to the aggressor's market, from which Western companies have either left or are leaving en masse. Starting from industrial equipment, ending with consumer goods. At the same time, it can buy Russian raw materials cheaply. Superficial monitoring of Russian sources indicates that some Russian manufacturers wanted to take the place of Western companies, but are already complaining that they cannot do this due to the dominance of Chinese manufacturers.

Frankly speaking, Beijing’s policy and position, despite all his economic power and influence in some areas, so to speak, is not yet drawn to the world peacemaker due to various reasons, including internal ones.

I emphasize that I cannot call myself some kind of serious sinologist, but for me a sign of such unpreparedness was their refusal to participate in the negotiations on the START III agreement . The Americans persistently offered China to join this agreement, to become a third party in it.

This, in my opinion, would increase the weight of China in the international arena. China, on the other hand, moved off this topic, and for me it was an indicator that they were not ready to strengthen their role.

— China is officially in favor of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. What could be Xi Jinping's reaction to Putin's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus?

— I saw the statement of China that it opposes the deployment, proliferation of nuclear weapons and so on. But it is one thing to make a political statement, and another to take practical steps. What will follow this statement? In this general political sense, all countries are in favor of nonproliferation, except perhaps Iran and North Korea.

China was a party to the 2015 Iranian peace plan agreement and, shall we say, there were good reasons to believe that Iran did not comply with this agreement much. There are countries that sign agreements so that they are simply not prevented from going about their “own business”. In general, the United States had reason to believe that Iran's activity in the region in terms of improving its nuclear potential has not been stopped, since it is not only about a nuclear bomb, but delivery vehicles, scientific work, and so on. Iran has not abandoned its goal of becoming a nuclear power. China, together with the Russian Federation, turned a blind eye to all this.

— What, in your opinion, is behind Putin's statement about the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus?

— It's definitely blackmail. You see, Putin has no special forces and means left to resist in the conventional terms in the war with Ukraine. Therefore, now they have chosen this path - they have withdrawn from the START agreement, and I consider this statement as a continuation of the policy of blackmailing the West. The Russian Federation scares Western politicians and the population of the Third World War. They try to play on these fears.

The question is whether the Kremlin will have the courage to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. However, all of these steps will be closely monitored.

In addition to blackmail, this is also a dangerous turn, raising the stakes in the confrontation with Ukraine. Putin understands that defeat is already seen on the horizon.