Ukrainian Forces Break Through Main Russian Defences In Zaporizhzhia
- 27.07.2023, 7:38
A major mechanized offensive began near Robotine.
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 through the main defensive positions of the Russian army south of Orikhiv. In response, the occupiers began to widely disseminate disinformation regarding the scale of the attack and the alleged “losses of Ukraine” associated with it.
The US experts have suggested that this marks a turn in Kyiv's counteroffensive efforts and is most likely only the beginning of the "main blow" that the Armed Forces of Ukrainian can inflict, and not its outcome. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) gives its assessment of the situation.
According to analysts, Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack in Zaporizhzhia. The Russian forces employed “standard doctrinal elastic defence tactics” quite late.
In response to Ukrainian advances, Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.
At the same time, propagandists began spreading widely divergent claims about the scale of the attack by Ukrainian forces, attributing losses to them. In particular, the Russian Defence Ministry stated that up to three battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly participated in this “massive assault”.
“ISW has not yet observed visual evidence to suggest that such a large number of personnel (a full brigade) were involved in the attack,” ISW responded to the lie of the occupiers.
One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces used over 80 armored vehicles, and other milbloggers more conservatively claimed that the number was closer to between 30 and 40.
“ISW has also not yet observed a large number of heat anomalies from NASA’s FIRMS / VIIRs sensors in this area of the frontline of the sort that has historically accompanied large, mechanized pushes.[6] The disagreement amongst several prominent Russian sources, who have generally tended to offer more mutually consistent claims about the size of and losses resulting from previous Ukrainian attacks, indicates that the situation remains less than clear and that Ukrainian forces may have been more successful than assessed by Russian commentators,” ISW said.
The battlefield geometry around Robotyne, as well as the force composition of the Russian elements defending there, offer important color to speculation surrounding the Ukrainian attack and gains. Geolocated footage from July 27 shows two Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and a T-72 tank either disabled or abandoned about 2.5km due east of Robotyne, which is a point that is about 2.5km south of the current frontline.
It is noted that this geolocated point is beyond the forward-most pre-prepared Russian defensive fortifications in this area, indicating that Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate and drive through tactically challenging enemy defensive positions.
The ISW said that this kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish in pursuit of deeper penetrations, as ISW has previously assessed. The defensive lines that run further south of Robotyne are likely less well-manned than these forward-most positions, considering that Russian forces have likely had to commit a significant portion of available forces to man the first line of defensive positions that are north and east of the settlement.
“These reports indicate that Ukraine is now able to deploy fresh and, as a rule, more experienced units in combat, while the same units of the Russian 58th combined arms army (in particular, the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division) participated in defensive operations in the area. The region itself has been constantly without reinforcements since the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in early June. The deployment of fresh Ukrainian reserves, together with the geometry of the Russian defensive lines and the likely deterioration of the general condition of the RF Armed Forces in the area, may allow Ukraine to launch a more successful offensive in the coming weeks,” the ISW said.
Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that the attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflexion in Ukraine’s counteroffensive effort. The New York Times reported on July 27, citing two anonymous Pentagon officials, that the “main thrust” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun in earnest. But ISW is more confident that these actions of the Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia are likely the start of any “main thrust” that the Ukrainian troops might be launching, rather than the sum of such a thrust.
“ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces can make significant gains in their counteroffensive operations, but that such gains are likely to occur over a long period of time and interspersed with lulls and periods of slower and more grinding efforts as the Ukrainians come to successive Russian defensive lines and themselves require relief and rotation,” ISW reminded that the counteroffensive takes longer.