Alexander Fridman: Borders With Belarus Can Be Closed At Any Moment
- 1.08.2023, 21:45
Lukashenka risks miscalculating.
How seriously do the neighboring countries perceive the threat of the Wagner PMC from the territory of Belarus today? The Charter97.org website talked about this with the historian and political observer Alexander Fridman:
— If you look at the statements that are being made, they do perceive the threat, but I still would not exaggerate. In Poland, as in Lithuania, they emphasize that they are watching closely, but do not see any immediate danger.
Estonian experts say that the movement of the “Wagnerites” on the territory of Belarus does not pose an immediate threat. Naturally, all this is monitored, it is unpleasant for them, at any moment the estimates can change. Now, as I understand it, the West does not see any huge emphasized danger.
— If the assessments change, can Poland, Lithuania and Latvia close the borders with Belarus?
— Undoubtedly. The border can be closed at any moment. The neighboring countries of Belarus emphasize that any provocation can lead to this. Moreover, regardless of how seriously it will be prepared. After all, the general context of the situation is such that these scenarios have been played out for a long time. I think that the decision-making mechanisms for closing the borders are prepared. I emphasize that the situation can change at any time.
— What other responses can the neighboring countries have if an escalation follows?
— At the moment, closing the borders is the most radical response. Naturally, if groups of “Wagnerites” infiltrate the territories of neighboring countries, they will be forced out from there militarily. Any preventive actions on the territory of Belarus seem unlikely to me.
The option that NATO troops will strike at the territory of Belarus is very unlikely. Everyone understands that it will bring serious escalation.
But this does not exclude that such strikes may eventually be carried out by Ukraine at the request of Poland. If Ukraine does this, then this is another level of escalation. If the “Wagnerites” really invade somewhere or try to do it, then most likely the attack will be repulsed, and then the borders will be closed.
— This is clearly unprofitable for Lukashenka, why does he continue to escalate the situation by talking about the campaigns of the Wagnerites?
— It is unprofitable for Lukashenka, but he has been playing with fire for so long and stubbornly that he no longer feels that the temperature is rising, it is getting hotter and hotter.
I think he just underestimates the full potential of the situation. In addition, he is fully convinced that the authorities in the Baltic countries and Poland are completely controlled by the West, by the Americans. That they are dependent, do not make any decisions.
Accordingly, he believes that he can tickle their nerves. Lukashenka is confident that the situation is under control. He believes that he keeps them so in good shape that they will not take decisive steps.
In this he risks miscalculation. Lukashenka does not want the borders to be closed. It is not profitable for him either economically or politically. I think that he does not fully realize the consequences of all the steps that he takes, as well as the determination of the countries with which he deals. This is fraught with big problems for him.
He may take some steps that he does not consider a radical escalation. Lukashenka will assume that everything is under control, normal, and the answer from the opposite side will be radical. Such an option is possible.
Moreover, Lukashenka already had such miscalculations. He, betting on the migration crisis, also did not proceed from the fact that everything would end like this. Lukashenka expected that they would negotiate with him, perceive him as a partner, and he would be able to negotiate something.
Lukashenka did not expect that in the end he himself would have to send the migrants he had gathered in Belarus somewhere. He miscalculated then. His assessment of the opponent was wrong.
It seems to me that even now his assessment is incorrect, because he is a prisoner of his Soviet stereotypes and Russian propaganda. When you are under the influence of such stereotypes, you can make serious mistakes. Lukashenka can make these mistakes without wanting to.