AFU Break Through Russia's Strongest Defence Line In Zaporizhzhia Region
- 4.09.2023, 7:35
The next ones may be weaker.
In the course of counter-offensive operations in Zaporizhzhia region, the Ukrainian military most likely broke through the most well-prepared line of defence of the Russian occupiers, and the next ones may not be so strong.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have come to such conclusions.
Ukrainian military officers gave a particularly frank and straightforward commentary on the prospects for a further AFU offensive in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region, and noted that a number of prepared Russian defensive positions right ahead and south of the Ukrainian Defence Forces' advance may be less challenging for Ukrainian troops.
For example, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic grouping of troops, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, spoke about the AFU counter-offensive in an interview with The Guardian on September 2. He noted that Ukrainian fighters have decisively broken through the Russian occupiers' "first line of defence" and Tarnavsky expects more rapid successes as the AFU will be crushing the enemy's weaker "second line" of defence.
Ukrainian defence forces have advanced to another series of prepared Russian defensive positions in certain areas near Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia region, although many Russian sources claim that these positions are the first rather than the second defensive layer in the Russian Army's multi-echelon defence in southern Ukraine.
The publication notes that Ukrainian officials and Russian "war correspondents" use different terminology to describe the same positions.
Tarnavsky said that Russian troops spent 60% of their time and resources on building a number of defensive positions that the AFU have now broken through, and only 20% on each of two subsequent defensive layers further south.
ISW notes that this series of broken Russian defensive positions is a system of interlocking occupier trenches and dugouts protected by anti-tank ditches and dense minefields, and Tarnavsky's report confirms the analysts' previous observation that Russian forces may not have made similarly sophisticated preparations throughout the subsequent series of defensive layers, particularly with respect to the density of minefields.
Russian defensive positions vary in strength along the entire front line in western Zaporizhzhia region, and Tarnavsky's description of weaker Russian defensive positions may only apply to the close vicinity of Robotyne. Tarnavsky also commented on the significance of Ukrainian efforts in other parts of southern Ukraine and suggested that the Ukrainian offensive in western Zaporizhzhia region is an operational priority.
Ukrainian military officials have emphasized that advancing AFU forces in the south can proceed more easily in areas with rarer Russian minefields.
Oleksandr Shtupun, the speaker of the joint press centre of the Tavria direction defence forces, said on September 3 that the minefields near the next set of Russian defensive positions are less dense than the initial defensive layer through which the AFU have advanced.
Shtupun and Tarnavsky, said that the AFU are deploying more hardware in these areas and moving more vehicles and troops to the next Russian defensive echelon. At the same time, the officers acknowledged that minefields would still pose a significant threat.
As Tarnavsky noted, the AFU spent more time on mine clearance than they expected at the start of the counteroffensive, and that consistent Russian artillery and aviation fire forced Ukrainian infantry to conduct mine clearance only at night.
Shtupun added that heavy minefields forced the AFU's breakthrough operations to take narrow paths - which is precisely the purpose of minefields according to Russian defence doctrine.
Thus, the Defence Forces may now have more opportunities to manoeuvre more freely in the tactical rear of the broken Russian defensive line.
The Institute for the Study of War points out that Tarnavsky's description of Russian minefields may only apply to the area immediately adjacent to Robotyne, and that the AFU may find very dense minefields in certain sections of the subsequent lines of Russian defensive positions.
"Although Ukrainian forces will certainly have to continue heavy fighting, Tarnavsky described Ukrainian forces as those who have successfully broken through the most difficult Russian defence," the publication said.
The Ukrainian military noted that the strength of the next set of Russian defensive positions around Robotyne is likely to depend on the composition of the enemy forces in the area.
Tarnavsky said that the AFU have been destroying Russian units around Robotyne that provide cover for the retreating enemy forces, and that Russian troops are acting in defensive "sections," probably referring to strongholds rather than a continuous line of defence.
Tarnavsky also noted that Russian forces will sooner or later exhaust their best soldiers, which will give the AFU a reason to attack more often. Shtupun optimistically added that the further success of the Defence Forces would allow the AFU to send more personnel to continue breaking the Russian defences in western Zaporizhzhia region.
Key Findings:
On September 3, the AFU continued counter-offensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia region.
A number of Russian sources stated that the AFU continued to act on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the occupied part of Kherson region.
Russian troops carried out a series of drone strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa region on September 3.
The Russian military appear to be actively recruiting personnel through ongoing cryptomobilisation efforts, although the quality and deployment of these new troops remains unclear.
Russian troops have been conducting offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, in western Donetsk region, eastern and western Zaporizhzhia region, and advancing in some areas on September 3.
Russian law enforcement agencies are patrolling and guarding "polling stations" in Ukraine's occupied territories to prevent citizens from expressing opposition to the fake elections and recording the voting process.
AFU Breaking Through Russian Defence
Earlier, Estonian intelligence voiced the opinion that the Ukrainian military had broken through the first line of defence in Zaporizhzhia direction near Robotyne. The head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, Colonel Margo Grosberg, said that in recent weeks the Armed Forces have been able to exhaust the occupants by fighting in Zaporizhzhia region, in the direction of Robotyne and Verbove.
In addition, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that the AFU had made significant progress in recent days in the southern direction. This refers to the successes achieved along Russia's second line of defence.