Political Scientist On BILD Article: Belarus May Disrupt Putin’s Plans

• 15.01.2024, 21:47

However, there is a possibility that the war between the Russian Federation and the West will be unconventional.

The publication BILD writes that Germany is preparing for a possible Russian attack on NATO countries in the summer of 2025. Previously, a similar scenario was described by other Western publications and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

What can Russia hope for? The website Charter97.org asked Slovak political scientist, president of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov:

— If we take the analytical notes of Western intelligence services (including German ones) that Russia is preparing for an attack on the West and is considering such a possibility, then such information has been published for several months now. But Russia can only count on one thing, because it is unlikely to achieve real success in a conventional war. If the Kremlin really wants to attack the West, they will only rely on nuclear weapons.

But the West doesn’t sleep either, so I don’t at all exclude in this case the possibility of a preemptive strike from the West if there is absolutely concrete information that Russia intends to attack. The West simply will have no other opportunity than to carry out this pre-emptive strike to neutralize the nuclear potential of the Russian Federation.

Will Russia even decide to do this? I do not rule out this possibility, and although it does not seem to me that the entire Russian leadership has gone crazy, it is not clear what is in Putin’s head. It's hard to imagine, of course, that this will happen. But the fact that serious media are writing about this, that serious analysts are talking about it, and information leaking out suggests that the West is at least dealing with these issues. So this is a serious thing.

— BILD writes that Lukashenka could also be involved in such an attack, in particular, in a push to Kaliningrad through the Suwałki corridor. Is the Belarusian dictator capable of war with NATO countries?

— Lukashenka will simply be forced to do this. As for policy towards the West, he is a complete lackey of Russia. It is difficult to imagine a situation where if Putin really decides to do this, he will not be able to involve Lukashenka in this matter. I also cannot imagine that Lukashenka would refuse.

If the possibility of a real large-scale military conflict with the West is already being considered, and Lukashenko suddenly bucks, Putin will simply remove him.

— What to expect in response if such a scenario is involved? Will there be strikes on the territory of Belarus?

— A couple of months ago, an interview was published with nuclear weapons expert Pavel Luzin (research fellow at the American analytical institution Jamestown Foundation — edit.), he said an interesting thing. Luzin claims that in Russia there are 12 control centers for the use of nuclear weapons. The strike will not be aimed at all sites where nuclear weapons are located, but at these 12 places that are somehow included in the mechanism for making decisions and transferring these decisions for specific use.

It is possible that there is simply no such center on the territory of Belarus. Yes, there are some installations there, apparently, missiles with nuclear warheads. But if we rely on Luzin’s analysis, there is no need to strike all nuclear weapons sites.

By the way, he also worked with such a scenario that the West, if such a situation arises, will simply take control of the decision-making centers. But I have already drawn the conclusion based on Luzin’s analytics that there will be no warning strike, and these centers will be neutralized.

But warning strikes also cannot be completely ruled out. Of course, this is a monstrous option. If Putin dares to do this, then the words of those who said that Putin is not just the most dangerous politician, but the most dangerous person in the entire history of mankind, will be confirmed. The decision to use nuclear weapons in confrontation with the West could simply lead to the end of life on Earth.

— Is Belarus the weak link of this plan? After all, we know that anti-war sentiment is quite high even among the Belarusian army?

— If Putin only counts on a conventional war, yes. From a geopolitical point of view, it is very important that he views Belarus as a springboard for further advancement into Europe. In this case, this, of course, can play a role.

But if he is configured to use nuclear weapons, then this value will be lower. But if in fact people in the Belarusian military establishment are opposed to war, this is a positive factor for the overall situation, which could complicate Putin’s implementation of his plans.