Media: Ukraine Can Mobilize Five Million People
- 7.03.2024, 8:54
For a long war.
There are about 5 million more men in Ukraine who could be drafted into the army. This is evidenced by approximate results in the framework of the texty.org.ua study.
Its authors covered demographic analysis to answer the question of what kind of general mobilization reserve Ukraine has at the beginning of 2024, which is important in the long war of attrition.
The authors of the study note that the error in the calculations can be significant — the last census was conducted in 2001, and no one knows exactly how many people live in Ukraine.
It is reported that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were slightly less than 10.5 million men aged 18-59 (excluding residents of occupied Crimea and Donbas).
The researchers refer to the data of the demographic forecast of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in 2023.
The Defence Forces of Ukraine
At least 1.1 million people serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine today. According to rough estimates, the losses of dead and wounded are already about 200,000–300,000 troops. In addition, more than 60,000 women serve.
Losses due to occupation
Due to the occupation, Ukraine was left without 570,000 men, this does not take into account internally displaced persons.
Refugees abroad
There are about 646,000 able-bodied men abroad. Part of them left the occupied territories through the Russian Federation, they can be deducted from the mobilization reserve.
"In the future, we will take into account that this number already includes many men who are not subject to mobilization — large families and people with disabilities. We will assume that, like women, 15% of the total number left," the study reads.
People with disabilities
It is estimated that there are about 1.02 million men with disabilities in Ukraine.
Guardians, large families, students
About 125,000 look after a child or adult with a disability, they should also be excluded from the mobilization reserve. In addition, 123,000 are parents with many children.
As of January 1, 2022, there were 431,000 full-time male students with the possibility of deferment from conscription. 5% could remain in the occupation, that is, another 408,000 should be excluded from the mobilization reserve.
It is noteworthy that over the past two years, the number of 1st year students has doubled, since admission to universities is often considered as a way of evading mobilization.
In 2023, the number of new students increased to 200,200, that is, by 180,000 in two years.
Scientists, teachers, professors
As of the 2022/23 academic year, there were 44,000 men among school teachers.
There are data on 41,000 male scientists, to which 16,000 graduate students are added.
50,000 men teach in higher educational institutions or work in pedagogical positions.
Some of them have reached retirement age, so the total number should be reduced by 70%. 5% of scientists and teachers could stay in the occupied territories.
It is not worth considering studying and teaching abroad: the total number of such people is small. Thus, another 107,000 people should be excluded from the mobilization reserve.
Military reserve
According to the Press Service of the Cabinet of Ministers, there are now 528,000 reserve troops, they should also be excluded from mobilization reserves.
Convicts
The total number of convicts is 26.600 people. The legislation provides that persons convicted of serious and especially serious crimes should be removed from military registration.
18-26 year olds
The total number of young people aged 18-26 is 1.68 million. According to researchers, a little more than half of the total number of the mobilization reserve should be subtracted — 707,000 people aged 18-26, who do not belong to other groups that were not taken into account.
In addition, the following are also exempt from mobilization:
Parents raising a child under the age of 18 on their own;
Adoptive parents
Close relatives of those killed in the Anti-Terrorist Operation [the war in Donbas - Ed.] (4.500).
The researchers did not find data on the number of such men.
It is specified that the number of men who care for a child with a disability or for an adult with a disability of group I-II is taken into account only approximately.
People with dual citizenship
The number of Ukrainian men — mostly from Chernivtsi and Transcarpathian regions — with dual citizenship, who most likely left with a second passport, is also unknown. Dual citizenship is prohibited in Ukraine, but it is impossible to check who has it.
Potential reserve
25-26 year olds
There are 413,000 men aged 25–26 years. In addition to students, it is worth deducting 33.5% from this, which, for various reasons, do not fall under mobilization, as a result — plus 273,000 to the reserve.
18-24 years old
If you reduce the age of mobilization to 18 years, you can add another 434,000 to the reserve (this is without mobilizing students).
Total population of Ukraine
The authors of the demographic analysis speak about the lost generation.
"The war has very serious demographic consequences for Ukraine. The number of subsequent generations depends on the number of young people and their willingness to build families. We have very few people aged 25—35 (and at this age they mostly become parents)," the article reads.
Females
Women were counted in the same way as men. Received 5.6 million But children should be taken into account, because when there is a minor child in the family, only one of the parents can serve.
It has been found that 46% of women aged 18–60 are raising children. Consequently, it can be assumed that the announcement of mobilization for women without children will replenish the reserve by 3 million people.