2024 Will Be Crucial For Lukashenka
- 10.04.2024, 11:03
The dictator will have to answer.
Lukashenka never misses an opportunity to prove himself a faithful partner of Putin, writes Ukrainian blogger Viktor Kaspruk for gazeta.ua:
– He recently demonstrated this by frightening a possible conflict in the so-called Suwalki corridor – a narrow isthmus that links the territories of the Baltic nations with Poland and separates the Kaliningrad region of Russia and Belarus.
The blogger believes that now we can talk about the "semi-annexation" of Belarus:
– Lukashenka no longer controls logistics and air bases in his country, formally still retains conditional control over state authorities, the KGB, the police and the army. While Russia is waging war in Ukraine, Putin, if nothing unexpected happens, is ready to put up with such a situation of uncertainty. He has long planned a place for Belarus in the likeness of the revived USSR, but without Ukraine's participation in it, he sees no point in forcing this issue.
According to Viktor Kaspruk, Lukashenka is forced to play a miserable role before the international community now:
– He is Putin's trained monkey, trying not to follow all the orders from the Kremlin.
In addition, the Belarusian army itself is a danger to the usurper. Unlike the KGB and the police, the military does not have much loyalty to him. That is why Lukashenka does not risk mobilization, without which he would not be able to join the war in Ukraine. And in the event of a critical situation in the country, the military, as an organized disciplined force, could defeat the Lukashenka security services and permanently send him to Moscow.
The year 2024 may be a crucial year for the Belarusian dictator, the blogger believes:
– He will be 70 years old, and 30 of them he was illegitimately ruling Belarus. Obviously, the last dictator of Europe is losing his stranglehold, his health has been undermined by decades of all sorts of indulgences, diseases and heaviness, but he cannot retire politically. As well as transfer the country to his heir, and to any of his inner circle.
Lukashenka does not want to send Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine, pursuing his own internal goals, but still – he is already an accomplice to Putin's crimes. He knows it for sure. It was this dictator who allowed Russian soldiers to be brought into his country for training and subsequent invasion of the territory of a neighbouring independent state. He did everything to support the Russian genocide in Ukraine.
However, it would be risky to believe that the issue of Belarus' entry into the war is the sole decision of Lukashenka, the blogger believes:
– At some stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Putin may force the Belarusian dictator to join it. It is possible that he has so far refused, because of the small army. Of course, the Belarusians cannot launch an offensive against Ukraine from the north to seize parts of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Volyn regions. But when the Kremlin gets hairy, Putin may have the idea of a second front that will disperse and undermine the Ukrainian forces. One of the options for realization of this idea is the creation of a unified Russian-Belarusian army, where the main officer positions will be granted to the Russians.
However, in military terms, this would hardly have a serious effect, since such a combined armed forces would still be small and not sufficiently combat-ready. Knowing what order now prevails among the Russian troops, it is possible that the uprising, mass flight or sabotage will further weaken the morale of such a hybrid army.
Before the full-scale invasion, it seemed that Lukashenka wanted to repeat the trick of 2014: to declare his loyalty to Moscow, but at the same time pretend to be neutral, trying not to burn all the bridges with the West completely. But today, the former ties with the Western colleagues are almost destroyed, and the Kremlin is closely watching to ensure that they do not recover.
Lukashenka is entirely dependent on Putin, says Viktor Kaspruk:
– He would have gone down in history a long time ago without him. These two dictators became “political Siamese twins”. They despise each other, but when Putin hallucinated something about people with victorious genes, he meant not only Russians but also Belarusians.
So that the illegitimate Belarusian leader does not voice publicly there for a long time, he is no less cautious than the Italian dictator Benito Mussolini. He did not join Hitler until it was clear that France would lose. When Ukraine succeeds, Lukashenka will emphasize his de facto innocence. However, it was he who turned on the green light for Putin's assassins on the Ukrainian border.
Lukashenka has two scenarios for the future: bad and even worse. If he sends troops to Ukraine, he will become extremely vulnerable at home, because his influence on the country will weaken. He won't and Russia will lose the war of conquest – he will definitely lose control over Belarus, and he can be removed from power by force and repeat the fate of Mussolini.
Lukashenka is trying to refrain from directly joining the war in Ukraine, forcing the Belarusian people to obey. Every wrong move is fraught with the collapse of this empire of fear. The dictator is a criminal, but not an idiot. He sees perfectly well that the Russians are stuck in Ukraine. If Belarus is drawn into the war, he risks losing his army, and then his tyranny will crumble. Russia is preparing for a summer offensive in Ukraine. In this context, it is important what role Putin assigns to Belarus. Does Putin have leverage over Lukashenka to encourage him to take a really suicidal step?
However, according to the blogger, Moscow has another option:
– Tactical nuclear weapons strike from Belarus against Ukraine, hoping that the answer will hit Belarus. Of course, this is naive, but Putin also keeps this decision in reserve – even though he has repeatedly received a warning from the West that the response will follow immediately. It can mean not only the end of his rule, but also the disappearance of Russia from the world map.
It is very likely that Putin and his closest criminal entourage are considering several options for drawing Belarus into the war, and not only against Ukraine. If Putin and Lukashenka try to block the Suwalki corridor and then invade the Baltic states, that's one thing. But when the threat to do it turns out to be a deceptive maneuver to divert attention from the likely Russian offensive from Belarus against Ukraine, this is quite another thing.
During the 30 years of Lukashenka's usurpation of power, he repeatedly managed to avoid political traps on the part of the Kremlin. He has to pass a difficult exam to confirm this skill now. A positive point here can be attributed to the fact that Lukashenka is not very worried about the fate of Belarus after the end of his rule. The main thing for him is his family and his life. Therefore, he will be ready to do anything for the sake of salvation.
The opportunity to tear Belarus away from Russia will appear only after the defeat of the latter. This will certainly mean separation from Lukashenka too. After all, he stole 30 years of the future from the Belarusian people. Lukashenka will have to answer for that, as for all the crimes committed: the disappearances of his political opponents, the torture and murder of political prisoners, the robbery of the Belarusian people, the smuggling of petroleum products and the falsification of elections, whatever he does next.