Another Country Has Been Named Where The US Expects To Change Power By The End Of The Year
- 22.01.2026, 8:56
Trump's team is going to repeat a similar scenario with Maduro.
The U.S. is actively looking for ways to change power in Cuba by the end of the year. After ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump's team expects to repeat a similar scenario in Havana, The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation.
According to the publication, Washington believes the Cuban economy is on the verge of collapse and that it has never been more vulnerable in the nearly seven decades of communist rule. Havana has been hit particularly hard by the loss of a key ally, Venezuela, which for years supplied Cuba with cheap oil. U.S. officials say that without that support, the Cuban authorities have virtually no resources left to keep the situation under control.
The Trump administration has no detailed plan to dismantle Cuba's political system. They expect to repeat the Venezuelan scenario - the capture of Maduro and subsequent concessions from his entourage, who remained in power, the White House considers it a model that can be adapted to Cuban realities.
Trump himself has previously made it clear that Washington's patience is running out. In one of his public statements, he urged the Cuban leadership to "make a deal before it's too late," adding that Cuba will not receive any more oil or money.
In parallel, representatives of his administration are holding meetings with Cuban emigration and civil activists in Miami and Washington. The main goal of these contacts is to find a person or group of people within the Cuban elite who understand where the situation is headed and would be willing to negotiate with the U.S. for a peaceful dismantling of the regime.
According to U.S. officials, the operation to detain Maduro was made possible with the help of a person in his inner circle. During the Caracas operation, 32 Cuban military and intelligence officials who were part of the Venezuelan leader's security detail were killed. The White House expects that the very fact of such a daring action will become a tacit signal to the Cuban leadership that a similar scenario is possible in relation to Cuba.
Although publicly the United States does not threaten Havana with military intervention, behind closed doors American officials admit that a show of force should be perceived by Cuba as a warning.
At the same time, even among Trump's allies, there are fears that a sharp fall of the Cuban regime could lead to chaos and humanitarian disaster. In Venezuela, for example, the US deliberately kept part of the old elite in power to avoid a complete economic and social collapse - a similar compromise may be needed in the case of Cuba.
In addition, Washington admits that the US does not have a clear understanding of who exactly could replace the current Cuban leadership. The Venezuelan scenario is more difficult to replicate here: Cuba is a rigidly centralized one-party state where political opposition is forbidden, there are no protests and virtually no independent civil society.
"It's a much tougher nut to crack. There are simply no people in Cuba who are willing to play on the side of the US," admits former US diplomat Ricardo Suniga.
In addition, official Havana has so far completely rejected the very possibility of compromise with the US. Real power remains concentrated in the hands of 94-year-old Raul Castro, and President Miguel Diaz-Canel has publicly stated that Cuba will not capitulate or accept agreements based on pressure or threats.
The Cuban authorities have traditionally cracked down hard on any dissent. The country has seen only two mass outbursts of protests in recent decades - in 1994 and in 2021. Human rights activists estimate that there are now more than a thousand political prisoners in jail.