Garry Kasparov: Putin Has Three Months Left

• 14.10.2026, 14:33

To defeat the aggressor, a coalition of nations is needed.

One of the leaders of the Russian opposition, world chess champion Garry Kasparov, warned that Vladimir Putin has about three months to put Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to the test. The Russian politician stated this at the Warsaw Security Forum.

In his assessment, a limited incursion into Estonia or Latvia, backed by drone attacks, could call into question the unity of NATO allies.

Kasparov believes that the Kremlin’s main goal remains not merely to provoke and exert pressure on Europe, but to directly influence the policies of the continent’s largest countries. He pointed to the upcoming elections in France, Spain, Italy, and Germany: their outcomes, in his view, could also affect continued support for Ukraine.

Moscow, according to the opposition figure, hopes to secure a reduction in European financial aid to Kyiv, which he called vital for the country. At the same time, Kasparov emphasized that the outcome of the war is determined not only by events on the front lines, but also by the economic capabilities of the parties involved, as well as the cost of continuing hostilities. He also pointed out that economic ties between a number of European countries and Russia remain intact.

To defeat the aggressor, a coalition of states willing to consistently support Ukraine is needed, Kasparov concluded. However, he said, the existence of such a coalition is currently in serious doubt.