Diesel Prices In The U.S. Have Risen Above Pre-Trump-Putin Deal Levels
- 14.10.2026, 19:17
Analysts were not impressed by the figures cited by the U.S. president.
“Diesel fuel prices for Americans—and, in fact, for the whole world—will drop to record lows, and very quickly,” Donald Trump wrote on Friday on his social media platform Truth Social, announcing an agreement with Vladimir Putin on diesel fuel supplies. Following the announcement, the wholesale price of diesel on the U.S. exchange fell slightly, but this week it surpassed the level it had been at before Trump’s announcement, according to The Moscow Times.
On Thursday, trading in November diesel futures on the CME Group closed at $4.88 per gallon. Friday’s trading began at roughly the same level, and by the end of the session—after falling following Trump’s statement—the price stood at $4.74. But as early as Tuesday, it had risen to $4.98. It reached that same level during Wednesday’s trading session and stood at $4.87 per gallon by 6:00 p.m. Moscow time.
Analysts are completely unimpressed by the figures Trump cited. According to him, Russia will “immediately” supply more than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) of diesel to the U.S. and the global market. However, U.S. consumption of this fuel is about 3.8 million barrels per day, so Russian diesel, even if it arrives in the U.S., “will not have a significant impact on prices at the pump,” says Tim Armitage, an investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot.
True, according to Trump, another 500,000 metric tons will follow in November, “immediately after that”—another 1 million metric tons, and then “another 300,000 metric tons will arrive within a short time, depending on the condition of [Russian] refineries.” However, Armitage still considers these promises “a somewhat desperate move by President Trump aimed at slowing inflation ahead of the midterm elections” for Congress.
The elections will take place on November 3. It takes tankers at least a little over two weeks to travel from Russia to the U.S., Bloomberg notes. So not a single barrel of Russian diesel will definitely reach the U.S. before the election—and that’s even without taking into account that no practical agreements on fuel transportation have been reached yet.
Retail diesel prices reached a record high of $6.53 per gallon in early October. This level could be exceeded before the congressional elections, NBC News quotes Tom Close, an advisor to Gulf Oil. Prices at gas stations “will remain around $6 per gallon for now, and truckers and farmers won’t see any relief in the near future,” agrees Patrick De Haan, director of petroleum market analysis at GasBuddy.
Trump, meanwhile, wrote in his post: “Lowering prices for Americans—especially our wonderful farmers, ranchers, and truckers—is my top priority.”
“Trump is trying to use every lever at his disposal to lower these prices,” notes Joe Delaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. But Delaura describes the supplies that, judging by statements from Trump and Moscow, Russia could provide as follows:
“Too little, too late, and not enough to make a difference.”
Negotiations on a contract with the U.S. are underway, and the parties are looking for a mechanism that will allow them to proceed despite sanctions against Russian companies, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has issued a temporary license for such shipments valid through April 7, 2027. It remains unclear whether American companies will be willing to assume the legal risks, given, for example, that members of Congress claim Trump’s agreement violates the law they passed in 2022 imposing an embargo on Russian energy imports.