Gerasimov's Position Began To Waver
- 16.10.2026, 10:30
Operation "Vivaldi" has intensified the power struggle among Russia's military leadership.
Russia held the large-scale “Center-2026” military exercises, which have been described as among the most unprecedented in recent years, as they simulated a future invasion of EU countries. In reality, however, the exercises revealed a somewhat different context—namely, a dead end in the development of military science in Russia, as well as the approaching, inevitable end of the era of Valery Gerasimov as Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, writes OBOZ.UA.
The Russian Armed Forces’ “Center-2026” strategic command-and-staff exercises took place from September 28 to October 3, 2026, at the Chebarkul training ground in the Chelyabinsk Region. According to international observers, the exercises focused not only on repelling an attack but also on transitioning from defensive to offensive operations.
A distinctive feature of the exercises was the use of a significant number of the latest defensive and offensive weapons, which international experts viewed as a demonstration of the capabilities of Russia’s modern, upgraded army.
But in reality, the “Center-2026” exercises revealed a completely different picture, the depth of which no Western expert was able to grasp. This is a manifestation of the dead-end development of military science, tactics, and strategy within the Russian army, as well as the most brutal internal confrontation within the General Staff, with Valery Gerasimov’s position teetering on the brink.
The Military Aspect
During the “Center-2026” exercises, the Russian military brought the latest models of “modern” equipment to the training ground.
A total of 47,000 military personnel participated in the land component—roughly equivalent to one combined-arms army. Additionally, 90 aircraft and 77 naval vessels were deployed. The exercises took place at 11 training ground locations in total.
At the Chebarkul training ground alone, approximately 6,000 military personnel, about 700 pieces of equipment, more than 600 UAVs, and over 60 robotic systems were deployed. And it is worth noting that this particular location served as the main PR platform for demonstrating what Russia does not actually possess.
In particular, they showcased the “new-generation” assault tank, the TShRK “Shurm,” designed for combat operations in urban environments—even when remotely controlled. However, this requires another, conventional tank to house the TShRK operators, but only within a limited range of a few kilometers to maintain communication.
In a scenario where FPV drones dominate at ranges of 20–40 km, two tanks—one unmanned and the other manned but without a turret—operating at ranges of up to 5 km—is just like a “dabble kill”!
Interestingly, during the exercises, the TShRK “Shturm” quickly got stuck off-road, and they were unable to pull it out without specialized equipment, since there was no crew on site to place traditional, multifunctional logs under the tracks.
In addition to the “Shturm,” the exercises included the T-14 “Armata,” the T-90M, the “Spiridon,” the new “Harpy” jet-powered drones, and a mobile drone launcher mounted on a KamAZ-5350 chassis, along with many other models. Firing exercises during the drills were conducted from armored vehicles with open hatches, which, under modern conditions, would guarantee the destruction of the vehicle and the death of the crew.
A demonstration of a mass airdrop of “Kurier” ground-based robotic systems was also conducted from Il-76 aircraft flying over the training ground at an altitude of about 600 meters… In other words, the robotic ground systems were airdropped from a large, easily detectable aerial target at an altitude within range of any man-portable air defense system (MANPADS), and interceptor drones could have riddled the aircraft’s cockpit with holes. Still, it looked impressive. A large aircraft and lots of parachutes.
“Center-2026” turned out to be exercises showcasing pieces of equipment that… have never appeared on the front lines. And the tactics for using them in real combat conditions would have been suicidal. At the same time, the shortage of standard equipment in the Russian armed forces exceeds 50%!
Therefore, the “Center-2026” exercises were nothing more than a large-scale PR stunt—epic and impressive at first glance, but completely non-functional! If Russia plans to—and does—attack EU countries, it will carry out a completely different plan.
So what was this, then? And here we move on to the political section of our analysis.
The Political Aspect
The fact is that Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was absent from exercises of this level and scale, while dictator Putin was accompanied by General Andrei Mordvichev (a modern Russian “butcher” on par with Zhukov, known for his “meat grinder” assault tactics). And this isn’t the first time this has happened. The exact same scenario played out during the “West-2025” exercises.
Gerasimov has been setting Putin up for quite some time with reports of fake territorial captures. In October 2025, the Kremlin dictator was briefed on the capture of Kupyansk—a lie. In May 2026, they reported the capture of Borovaya—a lie. In June 2026, they reported that Liman had almost been captured—a lie. In July, they claimed Konstantinovka had been captured—a lie. In September, they claimed Svyatogorsk had been captured—a lie. Now the Russian General Staff is reporting that Dobropillya has been surrounded—a lie.
But the real blow to Putin’s reputation was the capture of more than 250 Russian occupiers by the Third Army Corps during Operation “Vivaldi,” with whom the unit’s commander, Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, spoke.
During this conversation, it became clear just how dire and wretched the conditions are for the Russian occupiers at their positions.
This video not only served as a starting point for the complete discrediting of the Russian Occupation Forces (ROF) and their myths about successes in the Lyman sector, but also intensified behind-the-scenes infighting in Moscow. And at the center of this are, first, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, and second, Andrei Mordvichev, who has long seen himself as the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
And the “Center-2026” exercises were not so much a demonstration of how Russia will fight against NATO countries in the near future—it will not fight that way. This is Mordvichev’s PR campaign aimed at Putin—look how good I am and how modern I am—in contrast to Valery Gerasimov, who constantly lies about successes.
At the same time, a wave of discontent is growing on the Russian Ministry of Defense’s social media accounts over the fact that, despite the Ukrainian military’s successes and the Russian Armed Forces’ retreat, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces constantly reports on some ephemeral, unrealistic “successes” and “advances.”
In other words, the game against Gerasimov is being played on two fronts: Mordvichev is trying to prove to Putin just how promising and effective he will be, while the Russian Ministry of Defense is discrediting Gerasimov as a talentless and deceitful military commander.
Conclusions
The “Center-2026” exercises are not about military exercises. They are not about a threat to European countries or to Kazakhstan, which is closest to the training ground. It’s about the failures of Russian troops in Ukraine and the growing internal struggle. Undoubtedly, it’s generously spiced with unique weapons that will never appear on the battlefield, as well as an information campaign against the current Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
“Center-2026” is about how Andrei Mordvichev and Andrei Belousov are trying to sink the unsinkable Valery Gerasimov. And it seems that they are now closer than ever before to carrying out their plan.