Should We Expect Any Surprises From The Dollar?
- 19.10.2026, 8:53
An expert provided a forecast for the Belarusian foreign exchange market.
In its traditional forecast for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
Dollar Stability
The dollar exchange rate, however, declined slightly and, by the close of trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange on Friday, October 16, stood at USD/BYN 3.0098. The dollar’s overall change for the week was -0.97%, and +3.69% year-to-date. However, last week saw the second-lowest dollar trading volume of the year, at 48.538 million U.S. dollars.
Following similar “fluctuations” in currency trading, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian market settled at RUB/BYN 3.604 per 100 Russian rubles. Over the past week, the Russian currency appreciated by a minimal +0.39%; since the beginning of the year, the ruble’s depreciation has narrowed to -2.75%. The volume of ruble trading on the Belarusian Stock Exchange averaged 19,103.020 million rubles, or approximately 228.75 million U.S. dollars.
The strengthening of the Russian—and consequently the Belarusian— currency markets last week was driven by an inflow of additional foreign currency amid cautious optimism regarding the improving geopolitical situation surrounding Russia and persistently high energy prices.
The average price of Russian Urals crude hovers around 114.30 USD/br. Russian oil shipment volumes also remain at their highest levels since 2022. This situation is expected to continue through the end of this year.
Russian Ruble
In addition, the ruble is supported by the Bank of Russia’s ongoing policy. During recent summits attended by leaders of the Russian central bank, it was confirmed that a cut in the key rate is unlikely in 2026, and the rate is unlikely to fall below 10% next year either. The Central Bank cites the persistent level of the primary government budget deficit as a key pro-inflationary factor. At the end of this week, on Friday, October 23, the Bank of Russia’s Board of Directors will hold its next scheduled meeting; the market expects virtually no change in the rate.
In addition to these macroeconomic factors, the approaching tax season is adding to the mix this week. At this time, as a rule, an even larger volume of currency supply enters the foreign exchange market, which also contributes to the strengthening of the Russian ruble and, along with it, the Belarusian ruble.
Weekly Forecast
Apart from the Bank of Russia, the global financial market has practically come to a standstill in anticipation of the upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 28 and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Surprises from the Fed are unlikely; the odds of the interest rate remaining at its current level stand at 83.9%, while the probability of a rate hike is just 16.1%.
The midterm elections, however, could bring some surprises, which will undoubtedly affect key market prices. For now, both the major currency pair EUR/USD and gold—as key indicators of the global financial market—are moving sideways within a narrow range. And the longer the sideways trend lasts, the stronger the breakout will be. A simple rule of the financial market. For now, the market is accumulating liquidity to break out.
Given this, we can expect the slight trend of the Belarusian currency strengthening and the exchange rate weakening to continue this week.
In the Russian market, it is possible that the dollar could break below 83.0–82.5 rubles per dollar. In the Belarusian market, the dollar may still weaken below 3 rubles.