Have The Security Forces Stopped Obeying Lukashenko?

• 20.10.2026, 8:00

A new incident on the border with Latvia.

Two weeks ago, the Latvian armed forces reported a provocation: armed, masked men were forcibly driving migrants from Belarus into Latvia. Interestingly, Alexander Lukashenko responded to the incident more than a week later, stating that “such operations were not coordinated with him, and therefore were not carried out.” Analyst Sergei Chaly expressed the following opinion on his YouTube channel: The attempt to distance himself from what happened is no coincidence:

— And now the question is: Was this coordinated with Lukashenko or not? Was it done with his knowledge or not? Let’s say Belarus’s own security services were involved in coordination with Moscow—then there’s an explanation for why Lukashenko demanded a report from the chairman of the State Border Committee.

In other words, either it was done with Lukashenko’s knowledge—but carried out sloppily, caught on camera, and those responsible will be held accountable—or it was an operation carried out over his head.

And if it’s the second option—that means either the border guards dropped the ball, which is absolutely appalling, or Lukashenko realizes that his own security services can act without his knowledge. That’s why he immediately began reassuring the West that nothing would have been done without his knowledge.

Chaly spoke about Lukashenko’s fear:

— And so I think that many people haven’t quite interpreted this incident with Latvia correctly. It’s not Lukashenko and Putin testing NATO. In my view, it’s Russia, together with the security forces, testing Lukashenko.

And his fear is the fear of losing control over the tools of escalation. After all, tomorrow there might not be “black-haired Russians” there, but “little green men” who will stage a full-scale provocation.