"Lukashenko Realized He Was Doomed"
- 3.10.2026, 9:28
If Moscow decides to cut off the Suwalki Corridor, Minsk will have no way out.
Lukashenko swears allegiance to the Kremlin, but pins his hopes on doing business with the Americans. An article exploring what lies behind the co-aggressor’s words and his real fears can be found at “Pozirku”, political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky.
On October 2, Alexander Lukashenko pulled off his old trick: he swore allegiance to Russia, “We have never been traitors,” the ruler declared while meeting in Minsk with the heads of delegations participating in the session of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council.
But the devil is in the details. Lukashenko de facto confirmed the assumption of independent analysts that he has to negotiate with the Kremlin’s leader on matters related to the war against Ukraine.
“I told President Putin this openly: I have my own understanding of certain aspects of the conflict in Ukraine,” the Belarusian autocrat told the prime ministers of the EAEU countries. And he added, for balance: “…But we will always remain committed to our common course.”
He went on to remind them: “I, he said, made it clear right from the very first days of the conflict in Ukraine that Belarus would never allow anyone to stab Russia in the back.”
With this bombastic statement, he masks his unwillingness to send Belarusian soldiers to war. As if to say, we must protect our Russian brothers from a likely attack by treacherous NATO members.
Another remark by the host of the meeting is telling: “We are your friends, and you can count on us. Even in the most difficult times, even when it might not be very beneficial for us”.
Then he added: “Not only Russians, but all of you are not strangers to us.” However, for some reason, it seems that the passage about the situational disadvantage of friendship primarily concerned Moscow itself, because of which Minsk ended up as a co-aggressor and fell under sanctions.
Putin at “Valdai”: The Kaliningrad Issue
In addition, Lukashenko endorsed Vladimir Putin’s assertion—made the day before at a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club—that the world has reached a decisive, pivotal moment in its development, and that humanity has entered an entirely new reality.
“The world is changing very drastically right now. Very drastically. And what we’ve planned for today may already be impossible tomorrow. Due to the changing conditions in this frantic world of ours,” Lukashenko began his remarks.
It should be noted that many in the West viewed Putin’s statements at the Valdai Forum as alarming.
He seemed to be talking about a willingness to engage in peace talks on Ukraine. But the context suggested that he was only willing to negotiate on his own terms. Namely: that the Ukrainians surrender the entire Donbas, that their country remain neutral (read: not join NATO), and that the status of the Russian language, the Russian Orthodox Church, and so on be guaranteed.
However, this passage is even more alarming:
“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation—in this case, Kaliningrad— but perhaps other territories as well—the question of the Russian Federation’s use of all weapons at our country’s disposal will inevitably and immediately be on the agenda.
Simply put, the Russian leader is threatening to use nuclear weapons. Yes, this is presented as a defensive measure. But at the same “Valdai” forum, Putin described a full-scale war against Ukraine as follows: “It wasn’t us who wanted this, and it wasn’t us who started the war—they started the war against us.”
Now the Kremlin has begun to hype up the possibility of a blockade of the Kaliningrad exclave. A few days ago, Moscow sent a diplomatic note to NATO stating that it has information about the alliance’s preparations for an air and naval blockade of the Kaliningrad region. And then, they say, Russia is ready to deploy “its entire arsenal of forces and means,” including nuclear weapons.
What’s all the fuss about? First, Moscow is still harping on a statement made back in May by Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budris that “NATO, if necessary, has the capability to raze Russian air defense systems and missile bases in the Kaliningrad region to the ground.”
Second, there is speculation that the North Atlantic Alliance is increasing its presence in the Baltic region. In particular, it is conducting exercises during which it is rehearsing scenarios for a possible conflict with Russia. It is clear that the strategically important Kaliningrad enclave also features in the scenario of such exercises.
If Moscow wants to cut off the Suwalki Corridor, Minsk won’t be able to avoid it
Speaking at the Valdai Forum, Putin stated that the central threat to peace is the destruction of the former system of international rules. Lukashenko, while supporting his “big brother’s” Valdai theses, naturally failed to mention that it was Russia, first and foremost, that acted as the destroyer of the international security system.
But Lukashenko cannot fail to understand: the fact that Moscow is now hyping up the threat to Kaliningrad poses major risks for Belarus.
After all, if they so desire (and they have plenty of experience), the Russians can stage a provocation under a foreign flag: the accursed enemies have laid a hand on our beloved Kaliningrad region. And then, ostensibly for defensive purposes, Moscow could implement a scenario that only the lazy haven’t discussed: cutting off the Suwalki Corridor—the narrow strip of land between Lithuania and Poland.
In this scenario, Belarus would inevitably be drawn into the conflict simply because of its geography.
Yes, such a turn of events is unlikely for now. But back in 2022, many didn’t believe that Putin would dare to launch a “blitzkrieg” against Kyiv.
The Belarusian leader wants to lure American businesses in
Meanwhile, Lukashenko, unlike Putin, has made significant progress on the American track. And he is not simply offering Americans the chance to buy a potash asset for the sake of economic gain. The stronger U.S. business interests in Belarus become, the more opportunities Lukashenko will have to counterbalance Russian pressure.
It is precisely in this context that we should view Lukashenko’s offer to the Americans to join the construction of a nitrogen plant in Belarus.
“We’ve agreed with Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] that Gazprom will join us in implementing the project to build a nitrogen plant. We should offer this to the Americans. “They want fertilizers—including nitrogen-based ones—so let’s build it together. We’ve already selected a site, and all the infrastructure is in place,” the president said on September 29 during a meeting in Minsk with Alexei Russkikh, governor of the Ulyanovsk Region.
Lukashenko is surely also considering the political implications. If American businesses enter the potash, chemical, and other sectors of the Belarusian economy, U.S. interest in Belarus will not fade even after Trump leaves office. This means there would be hope for some degree of protection from Washington.
But, first of all, it’s not a given that the Americans will be all that interested in the autocrat’s proposals. Second, in any case, the ties to Russia are so strong that Minsk’s prospects for foreign policy balancing are highly problematic.
Lukashenko is surely aware of this as well. At today’s meeting, the following statement was made, seemingly with a note of resignation: “If you, the Russian leadership, make a decision, we will always be with you…”