Putin Made A Decision

• Petro Oleshchuk
• 3.10.2026, 15:45

What Lies Behind the Kremlin Leader's Threats.

Putin’s latest speech by Putin at the Valdai Forum should be viewed as a serious threat to the entire world, not just Ukraine. His position on the energy truce previously proposed by the United States was particularly telling. Putin rejected this initiative, stating that it made no sense. In essence, this can be interpreted as an intention to secure victory in the war against Ukraine through attacks on the energy sector and other forms of terror against the civilian population. What makes the current situation unique is that the Russian government is now making virtually no effort to conceal such intentions and is openly declaring them. Terror against civilians is increasingly being presented as a tool for achieving military and political objectives.

A significant portion of Putin’s speech was devoted to veiled—and at times explicit—threats against Western countries, including threats to use nuclear weapons. In discussing this, he resorted to the metaphor of a gun that hangs at the beginning of a play and must go off sooner or later. At the same time, Putin once again spoke of NATO’s alleged potential aggression against the Kaliningrad region. In this context, he declared Russia’s readiness to use any means necessary, including nuclear weapons. It is important to remember that the Russian leadership also portrayed the attack on Ukraine as a response to a certain aggression that the West was allegedly preparing against Russia. Now the same logic is being used to justify a potential confrontation with NATO countries.

At the same time, Putin asserted that Russia has no plans to attack European countries, either now or in the coming years. However, these assurances must be evaluated in conjunction with his statements about an alleged impending Western attack on Russia. Such rhetoric gives reason to believe that Moscow has very specific aggressive plans, which are framed in advance as a necessary defensive measure. The use of nuclear threats in the context of the Kaliningrad region suggests that the Baltic states could be one of the likely targets of such aggression. It is precisely in this direction that Russia may attempt to combine limited military operations with nuclear blackmail, hoping to paralyze NATO’s response.

A possible scenario does not necessarily involve an open declaration of war against the Baltic states. Russia may employ the tactic of so-called “little green men”—that is, military personnel without identifying marks—a tactic familiar from the annexation of Crimea. This would allow it to deny its own involvement in the aggression while simultaneously creating new facts on the ground. Moscow could portray NATO countries’ attempts to stop such an invasion as preparations for an attack on the Kaliningrad region. The next step would be yet another nuclear ultimatum, designed to force the allies to make concessions. The main goal of such blackmail may be to get NATO countries to refuse to provide effective assistance to the Baltic states.

In my view, we cannot rule out the possibility that this is already a well-thought-out plan, a political decision on which Putin has already made up his mind. His arguments about the West’s weakness, a global “reset,” and the demise of the old world order may serve as the ideological justification for such a decision. In this worldview, Russia claims an active role in shaping a new international order, using military force and the threat of further escalation. Therefore, the Valdai speech should be viewed as a declaration of intentions that could materialize into direct aggression against Eastern European NATO members in the foreseeable future. In such a strategy, nuclear weapons become a means of pressure through which Putin hopes to force the Alliance to refrain from an adequate response.

Petr Oleshchuk, exclusively for Charter97.org