"The Risk Of Civil War In Russia Is Real"

• 30.10.2026, 12:43

Historian Sarah Payne laid out the condition.

American historian Sarah Payne believes that after the death of dictator Vladimir Putin, there will be no democratic transition of power in Russia, and the struggle to succeed him could lead to a large-scale civil conflict. She shared these assessments in an interview with The Diary Of A CEO.

According to Payne, there is no single person in the Kremlin leader’s inner circle whom everyone has agreed upon in advance as a successor; therefore, a power struggle between various influential groups could erupt after Putin’s departure.

The historian also noted that many Russians have military training and did not rule out the possibility of a civil war.

Payne suggested that the country’s recovery following such a scenario could take about ten years. At the same time, she clarified that she had cited this figure as a rough estimate, not based on specific facts.

The historian also believes that Putin will continue to escalate the situation, as he sees no safe way to step down from power. According to her, the Russian dictator has built a system in which retiring could prove more dangerous for him than retaining power. Payne stated that even people from his inner circle could pose a potential threat to him.