There Will Be No “three-way Peace”
- Vitaly Portnikov
- 31.10.2026, 3:00
Why the Meeting Between Trump, Putin, and Xi Won't Be a New Yalta.
Yuri Ushakov , the Russian president’s aide on foreign policy , reported that practical preparations are already underway to organize a meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States and the president of China during the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China. However, there have been no comments on this matter from the summit’s hosts yet. The U.S. president, however, has not ruled out the possibility of such a meeting and emphasized that he would like to discuss the issue of nuclear weapons with his Russian and Chinese counterparts.
Putin has a different goal—the Russian president wants to discuss the situation surrounding the war with Ukraine. But whatever the presidents’ plans may be for the agenda of such a meeting, it can already, without a doubt, be called historic—never before have the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and China have gathered in this format, and few believed that the meeting would take place amid Russia’s horrific war against Ukraine. That is precisely why experts are already talking about a “three-way peace,” comparing the upcoming meeting—if it takes place, of course—to Yalta or Munich.
However, the meetings in Munich and Yalta were significant not merely because they brought together the world’s leading political figures of the time, but because joint decisions were made at those meetings that were decisive for the future. And what can we expect from the summit in Shenzhen, aside from a nice photo and a declaration of its “historic significance”?
Probably nothing! The nature of relations between the U.S. and China, or the U.S. and Russia, simply does not lend itself to any serious joint decisions. Xi Jinping’s latest visit to Washington ended without the signing of any documents; the parties could not even agree on a joint communiqué, which had previously been a traditional requirement for such trips. Why do we think that adding Putin to this equation will make it possible to reach an agreement on anything?
Putin can talk with Trump and Xi about the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, the American president cannot give him what he is actually seeking—control over Ukraine. Nor can he influence the complete lifting of sanctions. It seems the Kremlin is aware of this as well. Ushakov himself has already spoken of the need for dialogue not only with Washington and Kyiv, but also with European leaders. In other words, Moscow has come to see the utter unreality of the plan to “reach an agreement with the White House on Ukraine” while the Europeans continue to provide Kyiv with systematic financial and military aid.
But while Trump at least has a political interest in helping to end the Russian-Ukrainian war—both because it strengthens his image as a peacemaker and because it opens up prospects for economic cooperation with Putin, Xi is clearly not the kind of person who would try to take responsibility for the war.
Why would the Chinese leader do that? Why would he want to be held accountable for the terms of a settlement to the conflict in Europe? And what interest does Beijing have in this, when China already has economic cooperation with Russia and every new day of the war makes that country even more dependent on China? China needs neither a Russian victory nor a Russian defeat, nor the role of guarantor of a settlement. Nor does it need a discussion on nuclear arms reduction. Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders have repeatedly emphasized that, for China to participate in reduction talks with the U.S. and Russia, their nuclear capabilities must be close to China’s.
In other words, either China must acquire more nuclear weapons, or the U.S. and Russia must reduce their arsenals. At the same time, no one knows the actual size of China’s own nuclear arsenal today! But despite this fact, Xi will view Trump’s very attempt to initiate a discussion on joint nuclear arms reduction under the pretext of a trilateral summit as foul play.
I could cite many more examples of this lack of common interest, but I have deliberately focused on precisely those issues that Trump and Putin would like to put on the agenda of a possible summit. So, as you can see, there will be no “three-way peace.” Nor will there be any common agreement on the terms for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Vitaly Portnikov, Facebook