Who Will Determine Trump's Fate In The U.S. Election?

• 31.10.2026, 9:19

Six groups of Americans have the power to change the political landscape.

In the U.S. midterm elections, which will take place this November, six voter groups could determine the fate of Congress. Polls show that Donald Trump’s Republicans risk losing their majority in the House of Representatives and even the Senate. Voters who are dissatisfied with both parties, suburban women, Latinos, and rural residents are particularly important, writes The i Paper.

Dissatisfied with both parties. About 21% of Americans do not want to support either Democrats or Republicans. However, among them, there are more who lean toward the Democrats.

Disappointed Trump supporters. These are predominantly educated suburban women under the age of 45 who supported Trump in 2024 but are now divided in their political preferences. They are concerned about prices and the economic situation.

Latino voters. One in three of those who voted for Trump in 2024 is now disappointed with their choice or regrets it.

Moderate Republican supporters. This group makes up about 11% of the electorate. Many supported Trump but are dissatisfied with the cost of living.

Disillusioned Black voters. They are concerned about inflation, cuts to social programs, and the president’s unfulfilled promises.

Rural Trump supporters. They make up about 18% of likely voters. Although many still support the Republicans, rising food and diesel prices could dampen their willingness to go to the polls.

“Life is getting harder and harder for the average person who is trying to work, support a family, and treat themselves to a meal at a restaurant every now and then,” says political strategist Paige Gardner.

Even growing dissatisfaction with the president does not guarantee a Democratic victory. The turnout of these six groups—and the extent to which they are willing to deviate from their previous political preferences—will be decisive.