Lukashenko Was Shocked By The Kremlin's Plans
- 4.10.2026, 10:59
This time, sanctions alone might not be enough.
Next year, Russia plans to cut costs on literally everything—except the war. Russia has no intention of cutting costs on the war. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin gave Lukashenko a closer look at his financial plans. And even Lukashenko was deeply impressed by these plans. It seems Russia won’t be cutting back on its Belarusian ally.
“These are amazing plans,” Lukashenko said at a meeting with the heads of government of the Eurasian Union.
Lukashenko did not specify exactly what it was that so impressed him. Next year, Russia will cut all social spending by 6–7 percent and economic spending by 7.5 percent. Debt payments will amount to nearly as much as spending on economic development.
On the other hand, Russia will increase its military spending by one-third. It will account for 35 percent of total budget expenditures. If we include spending on all other aspects of national security, the figure rises to 44 percent. The Soviet Union spent a larger share only during World War II.
“If this works out in Russia, things won’t get any worse for us—not just in Belarus, but for all of us in the post-Soviet space,” Lukashenko enthused.
As for things not getting any worse—he was, of course, a bit hasty there. Things won’t get worse if everything goes according to plan. And Russia’s plans since 2022 have been sailing on a course like a Russian warship. Therefore, there’s every chance that Russia will spend even more on the war and, accordingly, even less on everything else.
It would seem, what’s there to be happy about? Less for the economy means less money for its Belarusian ally. But it seems Lukashenko was promised that his personal interests would not suffer as a result of the Russian budget cuts.
While cutting all other non-military spending, the Russian authorities have decided not to skimp on their allies. Because Russia doesn’t have any free allies. That’s why the Russian Ministry of Finance is proposing to allocate $6 billion in loans annually to other countries over the next three years.
“These funds are necessary to complete ongoing projects and fulfill the obligations undertaken by the Russian Federation,” states the explanatory note to the budget.
The budget does not specify how much of these six billion will go to its Belarusian ally. But apparently, it’s a significant amount. Otherwise, Lukashenko’s enthusiasm would be hard to explain.
“God willing, Mikhail Vladimirovich, may this plan come to fruition,” Lukashenko said on Friday.
The only question that remains is how Lukashenko will pay for this display of unprecedented generosity. And it will likely come at a high cost.
“Of course, I have my own particular perspective when assessing the conflict in Ukraine… If you, the Russian leadership, make a decision, we will always stand with you, despite our differences in understanding what is happening there,” Lukashenko promised.
Given the growing escalation in relations between Russia and the West, the promise to stand with Russia to the end, “despite our differences in understanding,” looks ominous. In 2022, Russia also promised Lukashenko that he wouldn’t be left empty-handed—and that the port of Odessa would be thrown in for free. Instead, he received sanctions and closed borders. And this time, sanctions alone might not be enough.
Andrei Bronishevsky, “Plan B”