The Ukrainian Armed Forces Made A Breakthrough In Donbas
- 4.10.2026, 21:03
Ukrainians launched counterattacks near Lyman and Komar.
The Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group has published its own assessment of changes along the front lines: the area of Ukrainian territory under Russian control shrank by approximately 190 square kilometers in September. According to analysts’ calculations, this is Russia’s largest net monthly loss since June 2023, taking into account both lost and captured territories.
The main reason was Ukrainian counterattacks in the Lyman area and toward Komar in the west of Donetsk Oblast. The project considers both operations to have been successful. Analysts also note local successes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
“Both Ukraine and Russia are conducting relatively slow offensive operations amid the intensive use of drones,” the analysis states. At the same time, Ukrainian counterattacks show that even with a slow pace of advance, the situation in certain areas can change significantly.
The Russian advance toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk has slowed. Overall, the Black Bird Group assesses Russia’s territorial gains this year as limited: the offensive has stalled on most fronts. Analysts consider a full capture of the Donetsk region by 2027 increasingly unlikely.
An important aspect of the calculation: some of the losses marked on the map in September may have occurred earlier. In particular, the Ukrainian “Vivaldi” operation in the Lyman sector continued throughout the summer, but the main confirmation of its results emerged in the fall. Therefore, the September figure also reflects changes that became known with a delay.
Estimates from other projects vary. The ISW also recorded a reduction in territory under Russian control by more than 80 square kilometers. DeepState, on the other hand, calculated a gain of 154 square kilometers but noted that an additional 270–320 square kilometers of territory liberated by Ukraine between July and September has not yet been included in the statistics. Rochan Consulting estimated Russia’s territorial gain at approximately 235 square kilometers, taking losses into account.
Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin stated on October 1 that Russian troops had captured 1,301 square kilometers in September and more than doubled the pace of their advance. Independent estimates do not confirm the scale of territorial gains he claimed.